The USC Trojans host the Utah Utes in a rematch of last year's Pac-12 Championship Game, and our top Utah vs. USC prediction favors the home team in front of its fans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. All our college football picks are based on the most favorable NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
The matchup between No. 14 Utah and No. 18 USC is one of four games featuring two ranked programs in Week 8. USC quarterback Caleb Williams' Heisman Trophy odds took a massive hit after the team's 48-20 loss to Notre Dame, as he went from +145 before the game at DraftKings to +1400 after.
After their first loss of the season against Oregon State in Week 5, Utah rebounded with a 34-14 statement win over California after its Week 6 bye. The Utes also secured a commanding 47-24 win against USC in last year's Pac-12 Championship Game.
As part of our college f ootball predictions for Week 8, we make our best Utah vs. USC prediction and give our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Utah vs. USC prediction: Week 8
Utah holds one conference loss entering this matchup. It likely believes it is playing for its Pac-12 Championship Game hopes, as a second loss would make it challenging for the Utes to defend last year's title, especially since the conference no longer follows a two-division format. Either USC or Utah has featured in the previous six Pac-12 Championship Games, and we anticipate the Trojans will take a significant stride towards securing their spot for a seventh consecutive appearance with a substantial win over the Utes.
USC is the third Top-10 team in the AP Poll era (since 1936) to allow 40+ points in three consecutive games. And while Utah comes into this matchup having rushed for 317 yards against California, which was 63 more yards than the Golden Bears had in total, this Utes offense is not nearly as explosive as the one the Trojans faced last year with Cam Rising under center.
Utah ranks 102nd in Offense Success Rate and 116th in Explosiveness, so it should not exploit USC's leaky defense, especially one that ranks a respectable 44th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate. Caleb Williams should also look much more comfortable at home in warm weather than in the cold in South Bend, as he threw more interceptions (three) than any game prior in his career.
Many will blindly bet on Utah, citing its 23-point romp in last year's conference championship. But lost amid that final score is the fact that USC raced out to a 17-3 lead, and the wheels fell off after Williams sustained multiple injuries that hampered him for the rest of the game. While he battled injuries for over half the game, Williams still finished with nearly 400 all-purpose yards against a stout Utah defense.
So while the Utes' 73 points allowed through six games is their fewest since 1994, they do not have the offense to keep up with a mad Heisman Trophy winner looking for redemption.
This is a three-star play, as USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games against AP-ranked teams.
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Utah vs. USC best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | -6.5 | -7 | -6.5 | -7 |
| -110 | -114 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Caesars is our go-to shop as USC backers, as it is one of two of our best sports betting sites under the key number of 7, but the only one charging a standard price of -110 to back the favorites.
This would not be a play at -7 or higher, so be sure to take advantage of the -6.5 point spread anywhere you can find it.
Utah vs. USC odds
Utah vs. USC odds analysis
Any movement on the point spread thus far has gone in USC's direction. The Trojans went from -3.5 at FanDuel on Sunday afternoon to -5.5 by the end of the day, and the spread still rose another point from there. USC also went from -5.5 to -7 at BetMGM, and the spread reached -7 at Caesars from an opening of -5.5 before ticking down a half-point. Early spread wagers are split 59/41 in support of the Trojans.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total of 55.5, as all others are in unison at 56. FanDuel has seen the biggest movement to this point, plummeting from an opening number of 57.5 on Sunday morning. Sharp action is likely driving the number down at our best sports betting apps, as early wagers are 3/1 in support of the Over.
The Over is 14-1 in USC's last 15 games.
Utah vs. USC game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 80 degrees, 2% PoP, wind 7 mph SSW
Utah-USC prediction made 10/18/2023 at 6:12 a.m. ET.
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