The Arizona Diamondbacks have defended their home field well in the NLCS, winning Game 3 and Game 4 to tie this series at 2-2. Game 5 features a starting pitching rematch from the Phillies’ 5-3 Game 1 victory as Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen will battle to see whose first name is spelled correctly. Today’s featured player prop is on Wheeler and his ability to work deep in tonight’s game. Let’s dive in!
Zack Wheeler (PHI) over 16.5 outs recorded (-115) (to win 1u)
Zack Wheeler and his 0.70 postseason WHIP across 54.2 combined innings in the last 2 seasons will once again take on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, a rematch from his dazzling Game 1 performance. The right-handed ace of this Phillies pitching staff completed 6 full frames across an efficient 82 pitches in that outing, allowing only 3 base runners and racking up 8 strikeouts. That was his 3rd matchup with this offense this year when including regular season action, and Wheeler has amassed 6 complete innings in each of those games. During the tail end of the regular season and so far in the playoffs, it’s hard to make an argument for a pitcher that has been better than this guy. Wheeler has dominated his opponents with his lethal 4-seam fastball that has carried velocity throughout starts. He locates this pitch well at the top of the zone and makes it difficult for opponents to catch him given the respect the rest of his arsenal deserves. The veteran throws both a slider an d sweeper, and yes, they are different pitches for those still attempting to deny. A curveball is his 3rd most-used breaking ball while a sinker gives him another fastball with double-digit usage. These offerings play extremely well off one another when he is on his game, and it is safe to say Wheeler has been on his game of late.
Wheeler’s 19 playoff innings this season have resulted in a 2.37 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 1.98 xFIP, and 1.76 SIERA. With 26 strikeouts to 1 walk he has made his opponents beat him in the zone, and his 81.6% zone contact rate allowed these playoffs is 2.9% lower than the next closest starter remaining this postseason. His 96.2 average 4-seam velocity is higher than his 95.8 average in the regular season, and he has shown no signs of fatigue. Wheeler is on 4 days of rest for this game, and that has been his best split in terms of days off between starts this season. He made 11 starts this year in this situation, tossing 69 innings with a 0.93 WHIP and 2.09 ERA. Strikeouts were a little down in that sample, but we just need efficiency in this spot, not long counts that take up 6 or more pitches. I was surprised with Arizona’s approach to begin Game 1 as they took a ton of early strikes and fell behind in counts often. Wheeler is the type of guy who will attack the zone regardless of matchup, and if Arizona attacks earlier in counts, we could see a number of quick results.