With five weeks in the books in this NFL season, we’ve seen a rash of injuries that include some of the top players in the league. When working on power rankings and betting games, this can be the most important and trickiest variable to quantify. Look no further than Joe Burrow and his five-week journey. He has played each game but has looked nowhere near himself, making it very difficult on a weekly basis to be able to grade his health and performance. Last week was the healthiest and best we have seen Burrow move in the pocket, so he has to be upgraded to a point, but off his previous best effort, Week 3 vs the Rams, came arguably his worst performance vs. the Titans. Let’s dive into the value of injuries and how they affect line movements.
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Quarterbacks:
Nowhere better to start than with the most important position in football. There are two separate things that need to be focused on when looking at the value of a quarterback injury. Let’s look at Deshaun Watson as an example. At full health, I have Watson as a +3 grade, meaning he is 3 points better than the average NFL quarterback. His backup in Week 4, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I have as a -3, meaning I have a 6-point adjustment when Watson is out and DTR is in. In that Week 3 matchup with the Browns and Ravens, the Browns were favored by -2.5 points before the Watson announcement and became a 2.5-point underdog with him out, a 5-point move. That adjustment was too low, but when you run into key numbers, it becomes difficult.