The Minnesota Twins will host a home playoff game today against the Houston Astros with the series currently tied up at 1-1. Game 3 has numerous pathways to entertainment, and we should expect this series to remain competitive throughout. Sonny Gray has been tagged as the Game 3 starter for the Twins and he is the focus of our player prop article for today. Let’s dive in!
Sonny Gray (MIN) over 14.5 outs recorded (-135)
I spent a long time this morning debating how I wanted to bet on Sonny Gray, and over 14.5 outs recorded is the angle I ultimately landed on. The Minnesota Twins have tied the ALDS at 1-1 with their Game 2 victory over the Houston Astros, and now at home they will turn to their most consistent arm this season. While Pablo Lopez provides the team with the most upside on a start-to-start basis, Gray has been a steady producer for the team this season and a key part of their success. The right-hander contributed 184 regular season innings this year, the most since his 2015 season in Oakland. Those 184 innings of work were spread out amongst his 32 outings, and he recorded 5 or more innings in 28 of those starts. Among his 4 times going under, one of them was his season debut with rust leading to a season-high 4 walks. Another was his final regular season start where he was intentionally held to only 55 pitches across 4 efficient innings.
Sonny pitched in Game 2 of the wild card series against Toronto, tossing 5 innings of scoreless baseball with 85 pitches across his 21 batters faced. Even at decreased efficiency he was able to register 5 complete frames, and Minnesota won that game 2-0 as a result. Gray averaged just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance this season, ranking 14th best among MLB’s 100 qualified pitchers. His final 14 regular season starts that followed the all-star break resulted in an even lower 3.55 pitches per PA, a mark that would have ranked tied for first if replicated across the full season. In that span he had games with 6 innings in 80 pitches against Kansas City, 7 innings in 77 pitches against St. Louis, 6 innings in 80 pitches against Philadelphia, 7 innings in 81 pitches against Texas, 7 innings in 81 pitches against Cleveland, and 7 innings in 81 pitches against the White Sox. In those final 14 regular season starts he posted a 4.8% BB%, 45.9% GB%, 2.67 ERA, and 2.83 FIP.