The Washington Commanders (2-3) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (3-2) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this Week 6 matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Commanders vs. Falcons Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this Week 6 game with 64.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Commanders and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this Week 6 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Logan Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+8.50 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.55 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.20 Units / 39% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders went 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- Commanders are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -21.14% ROI
- Commanders are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Commanders are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons went 1-4 (-3.3 Units / -61.11% ROI).
- Falcons are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 15.04% ROI
- Falcons are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Falcons are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Commanders are 6-13-1 (.300) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Commanders are 5-2 (.714) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — tied for worst in NFL.
The Commanders are 1-6 (.143) when allowing 300 or more passing yards since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .425.
The Commanders are 1-7 (.125) after a road win since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .466.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Falcons are 3-2 (.600) this season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Falcons are 12-9 (.571) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Falcons are 5-10 (.333) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .490.