We have scoured the odds and various markets for all six college football games involving SEC teams in Week 6 and deliver our best bets based on the best NCAAF odds.
An SEC team has won each of the last four college football national championships, making it the most discussed and scrutinized conference.
Missouri was picked to finish sixth of seven teams in the SEC East in the preseason media poll. The Tigers have a massive opportunity to continue to silence the doubters and improve to 6-0 when they host LSU.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 20 Kentucky is one of four ranked vs. ranked matchups this week, and we will see if the Bulldogs are motivated after receiving just 35 of the 62 first-place votes in the AP poll after last week's close call at Auburn.
Here are our SEC college football best bets for Saturday of Week 6 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SEC best bets for college football Week 6
- Jase McClellan anytime touchdown vs. Texas A&M (-110 via bet365) ????
- Florida Over 34.5 vs. Vanderbilt (-125 via DraftKings) ????
- Malik Nabers first-half touchdown vs. Missouri (+110 via bet365) ???
- Georgia -7.5 first half vs. Kentucky (-106 via FanDuel) ????
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SEC schedule and odds Week 6
(Odds via Caesars)
- LSU (-6) vs. Missouri
- Western Michigan vs. Mississippi State (-20.5)
- Alabama (-2) vs. Texas A&M
- Vanderbilt vs. Florida (-18.5)
- Kentucky vs. Georgia (-14.5)
- Arkansas vs. Ole Miss (-11.5)
SEC college football predictions
There was a time when getting -110 odds for Alabama's lead running back to score a touchdown would have been unheard of, given the frequency with which they scored. However, it has been well-documented that Alabama's offensive line issues are a big reason for its struggling offense that ranks eighth in the conference in scoring (32.2 points per game).
Things have been looking up for the Crimson Tide after committing to Jalen Milroe as their starting quarterback, as they have averaged 32 points per game against SEC competition. Milroe has completed 81% of his passes each of the last two weeks while posting his best QBR (96.8) of the season last week against Mississippi State.
However, head coach Nick Saban prefers to run when the team is close to the goal line, as four of the previous five Crimson Tide touchdowns have come on the ground. Thus, while Milroe should keep the Aggies defense honest with his newfound accuracy, that should open up running lanes for McClellan, who has scored at least one touchdown in six of his previous eight games dating back to last season.
Our Brenden Schaeffer dives further into this matchup with his Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions.
This is a four-star play, as McClellan entered last week ranked third among FBS running backs with 27 missed tackles forced, per PFF. We are getting the best value at bet365, as FanDuel has -135 odds for the same prop.
Vanderbilt has allowed 39.8 points per game during a four-game losing streak. While it trailed undefeated Missouri by just 10 points early in the fourth quarter, that does not detract from the fact that Tigers quarterback Brady Cook had a career day with 395 yards passing and four touchdowns. Cook settled in nicely, completing 25 of his first 29 passes, which is exactly the confidence boost Gators quarterback Graham Mertz will need coming off a blowout loss against Kentucky.
Mertz leads all SEC quarterbacks in completion percentage and is top five in passer rating despite facing three opponents currently in the AP top 25. He entered the season ranked last among FBS quarterbacks in total QBR, completion percentage, interception percentage, and TD-INT ratio.
However, Mertz has completed 81.5% of his passes against SEC opponents with an encouraging 3-1 TD-INT ratio. And though Trevor Etienne was limited to just 29 yards on 11 carries against Kentucky, he entered the week ranked second in the SEC with 11 rushes of 10-plus yards. Thus, we expect a more balanced attack from Florida when facing a Vanderbilt defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (147.8) of any team in the conference.
DraftKings charges much less in juice than bet365 (-150) for the same number, and we are getting the right side of the key number of 35, whereas FanDuel's team total O/U is 35.5 (-106 to back the Over).
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LSU has issues defensively, as the Tigers have allowed an average of 43.7 points in their three biggest games of the season (vs. Florida State, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss).
It is also fair to wonder how much the defense will have in the tank a week after facing Ole Miss and its offense that runs plays quicker than every 22 seconds. Thus, we expect the LSU offense to have to score frequently in what should be a raucous atmosphere in Columbia, with Jayden Daniels relying on his best wide receiver early.
In LSU's two true road games this season, Malik Nabers has totaled 21 catches for 341 yards and two touchdowns. Against Mississippi State, those two touchdowns came before halftime, as the team resorted to more of a running attack once it built a big lead.
Nabers ranks second in the country in receiving yards (625), and he faces a Missouri secondary that ranks 97th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Nabers has a price as high as -285 to score a touchdown anytime at DraftKings, so we are getting much better value at bet365 to back him to find the end zone in the first 30 minutes.
A big game from Nabers aligns with my Over pick in from our LSU-Missouri predictions.
Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS, while Kentucky has covered four of its five games this year. In addition, the Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 October games against AP-ranked opponents.
However, those trends have resulted in an under-inflated line, especially as Kentucky is coming off its biggest win over Florida in 44 years, and Georgia had a four-quarter battle against Auburn last week.
Georgia has a plus-51 point differential in the first half compared to a plus-77 differential in the second half of games this season. However, we expect head coach Kirby Smart to light a fire under his players, who have trailed by double-digits at some point in both SEC games this season.
Look for Georgia to have more success in the red zone (it has scored touchdowns on 65.4% of its red zone trips) to key a first-half cover.
DraftKings and bet365 charge a price of -108 and -110, respectively, to lay the 7.5 points in the first half, so we are getting the best return at FanDuel. We would make the alternate first-half spread of -6.5 (-145) found at bet365 a five-star play, but we prefer the lower price with laying more than a touchdown.
Bettors can get even better odds by backing our Kentucky-Georgia prediction for the full-game spread.
SEC college football best bets made 10/5/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.
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