Today’s MLB action features a full slate of games with an additional game as part of the doubleheader between the Mets and Marlins. Playoff implications are large in several matchups, and the betting markets are hot this morning with movement across the board. There are 3 best bets that stood out to me as value this morning, let’s dive in!
Baltimore Orioles team total over 3.5 + ML (-135)
Betting on Grayson Rodriguez has been profitable for me this year in his rookie season. Betting against Patrick Corbin has been a profitable endeavor for a few seasons now. Today I will look to do both things in one move. The Baltimore Orioles are locked into a playoff berth with their 98 wins pacing the American League. With a 2.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore’s magic number for the division is rapidly dwindling. Tonight, they will turn to their future ace in Grayson Rodriguez. His recent play has suggested he may be ace caliber currently. The rookie’s last 12 starts since being recalled from the minor leagues has resulted in a sample of games that has the city of Baltimore buzzing. Rodriguez has posted a 2.66 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 24.1% K%, 7.4% BB%, 38.2% hard-hit rate, 4.2%-barrel rate, 53.2% GB%, 37.0% chase rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate. In unison, those numbers are elite, and in his last 11 starts he has surrendered 3 or fewer earned runs each time . This includes just 6 combined runs in his last 5 starts while also recording 6 or more Ks in each of those outings.
While strikeouts are harder to come by against the Nationals typically, Washington’s high ground ball rate and low walk rate should help play into an efficient outing from Rodriguez. The Nationals in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching have the 11th lowest BB% and 7th highest GB%. In that same span they rank just 27th in hard-hit rate, 19th in wOBA, and have a wRC+ of 91. Their lack of home run production on the season makes it difficult to find massive scoring innings, and thus they average the 9th fewest runs per game as a team. Behind Grayson is an Orioles bullpen that is one of the better units in the sport. Felix Bautista is still out, but Yennier Cano highlights their late-game arms that still rank in the top half of the league across the last 30 days. Cano is available for tonight’s game despite having thrown 15 pitches yesterday, but thanks to a long outing from Kyle Bradish the Orioles have only used 1 bullpen piece in the last 2 days combined. Thei r unit is ready to relieve Rodriguez once his day is done, and I don’t foresee a large offensive output from the Nationals tonight.