Our Middle Tennessee State-Western Kentucky prediction is based on the best college football odds which heavily consider the Hilltoppers' offensive prowess in home games so far during 2023.
It's 100 Miles of Hate on a Thursday night in Western Kentucky as the Hilltoppers (2-2) look to make it five straight wins against their Conference USA rival.
It seems unlikely that Middle Tennessee State (1-3) possesses the defensive acumen to slow down the Hilltoppers.
Here is our best Middle Tennessee State-Western Kentucky prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky prediction: Week 5
The Hilltoppers boast the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency in Conference USA and rank 62nd in the nation in the category. WKU has been particularly strong offensively during home games in 2023, scoring 40-plus points against both South Florida and Houston Christian.
Middle Tennessee State ranks 108th in the FBS in adjusted defensive efficiency, fourth from the bottom of C-USA. The Blue Raiders are particularly susceptible to giving up production through the air, as they've allowed 258.3 passing yards per game in 2023 (92nd in FBS). the Hilltoppers boast a top-40 passing offense, putting up 269.3 passing yards per game behind the dynamic Austin Reed at quarterback.
The Blue Raiders are 0-2 in road games during 2023 and haven't won in Bowling Green since 2012. WKU has claimed a 17-plus-point victory in thi s game during consecutive years. The Hilltoppers have also covered the spread in their only home game against an FBS opponent so far in 2023, beating USF 41-24.
South Florida boasts a slightly better defense than MTSU, so we look for Western Kentucky to put up similar offensive totals in this matchup. The Blue Raiders rank 91st in offensive efficiency in the FBS, and they shouldn't be able to stay within a touchdown if WKU plays up to its offensive capabilities.
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Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| -110 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The precipitous decline in the point spread since it opened at WKU -8.5 has created quality odds across the board for Western Kentucky backers at our best sports betting sites. FanDuel is the one spot to avoid at current odds, as you'll pay a premium of -115 to support the Hilltoppers on the spread. Everywhere else lists WKU at -5.5 with -110 odds.
We're comfortable taking Western Kentucky up to -6.5 as a three-star recommendation. If the line dips to -3.5, we recommend WKU as a four-star play barring any notable changes to the injury report.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky odds
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky odds analysis
Western Kentucky opened as an 8.5-point favorite, but that number has been decreasing sharply down to -5.5 across our best live betting sites. C urrently, 73% of wagers have come in on the Hilltoppers, likely due to the favorable line movement.
The total opened at 61.5 and has dropped to between 59.5 and 60.5 across our best sportsbooks. The Over is drawing 52% of wagers.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
- Where: L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
- How to watch: CBS Sports
- Weather: 76 Degrees, 6 mph winds, 19% Precipitation
Middle Tennessee State-Western Kentucky prediction made Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET.
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