This is the only Week 3 matchup pitting 2-0 teams against one another, and we're giving our top Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions for the Monday Night Football matchup based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting sites.
The Philadelphia Eagles should benefit from extra rest after beating the Minnesota Vikings last Thursday, and the 34-28 victory has quarterback Jalen Hurts sporting an active 19-1 regular-season record.
Philly and Hurts visit the surprising 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have started 2-0 each of the past three seasons, but they're looking to make it 3-0 for the first time since 2005.
Our own Jon Metler is also zeroing in on this matchup with one of his NFL player props for Week 3. For more, check out all of our NFL predictions for Week 3 and NFL best bets too.
Here is our best Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction for Monday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction: Monday Night Football
Nitpicking Tampa Bay's early-season schedule and declaring it overvalued because its two opponents are a combined 0-4 is foolish, considering the same could be said for Philadelphia, and the two teams even share a common opponent. The biggest reason to like the Bucs to cover is because of the instant rapport QB Baker Mayfield established with offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who resurrected Geno Smith's career in Seattle.
PFF graded Mayfield as the third-best signal caller through the first two weeks. If you're worried about a Philadelphia defense that totaled 70 sacks last year (tied for an NFL history third-most), know Mayfield completed 82.4% of his passes for 223 yards when under pressure against the Chicago Bears. That's tied for the most passing yards per game by a quarterback under pressure since 2020, per Next Gen Stats.
Mayfield did an outstanding job keeping drives alive and moving the chains, completing 87% of his passes and posted a 3-0 TD-INT ratio and 132.1 passer rating on third down this year. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS. However, it still looks a step behind last year's NFC championship team, because it's adjusting to life without its offensive and defensive coordinators from 2022.
The Eagles are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games as road favorites. However, Mayfield had his third career matchup with 300-plus passing yards and zero interceptions. Wide receiver Mike Evans now ranks fifth in league history with eight games of at least 170 receiving yards and a touchdown after last week. We're buying Mayfield's Tampa Bay resurgence and fading an Eagles team that's just 3-4-1 ATS with a rest advantage since 2021.
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5 | +4.5 | +4.5 | +5 | +5 |
| -110 | -105 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
Buccaneers backers can choose three of our best sportsbooks for the top number (+5). FanDuel and BetMGM may allure some bets with their lower -105 juice. However, we prefer the extra half-point of insurance, since Tampa Bay doesn't have the best ATS Monday Night Football track record (1-5 ATS in its last six MNF games).
Eagles vs. Buccaneers odds for Monday Night Football
Eagles vs. Buccaneers odds analysis
Late Sunday night, Tampa Bay could have been had as high as +6.5 at BetMGM and DraftKings, but that number quickly dropped to -5.5 by Monday evening, with the latest half-point fall Wednesday. Based on the good two-way betting split (54/46 on the spread in Tampa Bay's favor), sharp action likely drove the number down so far.
BetRivers is the only shop with a 45.5 total, while all others are 46. The Over/Under rose 2 points at most of our best live betting sites from an opening number of 44.5 throughout the week. FanDuel is the only shop that never reached a high of 46.5 (FD's Over/Under ceiling was 46). There's slightly more skewed betting action on the total than the point spread, as 60% of early wagers are backing the Over.
Monday Night Football game info
- When: Monday, Sept. 25 at 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 91 degrees, 56% chance of precipitation, 7-mph ESE wind
Eagles-Buccaneers prediction made Thursday, 9/21/23 at 8:44 p.m. ET
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