The New York Yankees (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Yankees vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 78-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 62-66 ATS.
Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today's Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday's matchup with 52.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We've highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 12 away games (+16.55 Units / 76% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+12.65 Units / 66% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 57-73 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -12.8% ROI).
- 78-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -2.6% ROI
- 59-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -9.73% ROI
- 66-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 0.7% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 62-66 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -1.92% ROI).
- 71-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.64% ROI
- 58-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -5.2% ROI
- 61-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.69% ROI
Francelis Montas: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (110/384) against Frankie Montas this season – 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% – 84th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 24% (67/277) against Frankie Montas this season – highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% – 100th Percentile.
60% of Frankie Montas strikeouts are located out of the zone this season – 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 52% – 85th Percentile.
74% of Frankie Montas' called strikeouts are low this season – 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% – 94th Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Armstrong has allowed a slugging percentage of .653 (62 Total Bases / 95 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season – highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 – 0 Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has allowed a slugging percentage of .391 (45 Total Bases / 115 ABs) with two-strikes this season – 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 – first Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has allowed an OPS of 1.058 (111 PA's) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season – highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .714 – 0 Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has a strike rate of 73% (192/263) in two strike counts this season – 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% – 98th Percentile.