The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-2) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-2) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Jonesboro.
Southern Miss is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Southern Miss vs Arkansas State Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Southern Miss will win this game with 64.8% confidence.
Southern Miss vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas will cover the spread with 51% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Southern Miss and Arkansas State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Southern Miss Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Southern Mississippi have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Southern Mississippi has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- Southern Mississippi has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Southern Mississippi have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Southern Mississippi has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Best Southern Miss Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Southern Miss players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Gore Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Frank Gore Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jakarius Caston has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Southern Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Southern Miss is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Southern Miss is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -3.23% ROI
- Southern Miss is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Southern Miss is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas State is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Southern Miss is 1-11 (.077) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 7th-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .367
Southern Miss is 5-17 (.208) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season– tied for 26th-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Southern Miss was 5-1 (.714) when rushing for 120 or more yards in the 2022 season– 10th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .485
Southern Miss is 7-16 (.304) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– 36th-worst in FBS; Average: .451
Arkansas State is 1-12 (.077) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .450
Arkansas State is winless (0-9) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .407
Arkansas State is 2-8 (.154) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .516
Arkansas State is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .305
Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 466 passing yards in 3 games (just 155.3 YPG) this season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Southern Miss’s defense has allowed just 168.0 passing yards per game this season — fourth-best among NonP5 defenses.
Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.6% of 91 attempts this season — tied for 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Southern Miss’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 15.4% of attempts this season — eighth-best among FBS defenses.