The New York Yankees (-160) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Yankees vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 76-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 74-75 ATS.
Yankees vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Yankees vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 56.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 19 away games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.90 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.40 Units / 130% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+9.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Pirates vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Colin Selby | 1.5 +115 | 1.5 -150 |
| Carlos Rodon | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-76 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 76-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 67-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -10.56% ROI
- 77-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 1.97% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 74-75 against the Run Line (-19 Units / -9.69% ROI).
- 69-80 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 2.72% ROI
- 80-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.9 Units / 6.04% ROI
- 64-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.6 Units / -14.38% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 1st — Kenta Maeda has the longest active streak at 11.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (83/248) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (466/939) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 38% (119 SO in 310 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Selby has a strikeout rate of 40% (10 SO in 25 PAs) over the last 14 days (5 games) — 10th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (19/49) against Colin Selby over the last 14 days (5 games) — 9th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 27% — 92nd Percentile.
Colin Selby has struck out 43% (10/23) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (11 games) — tied for 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.