The Penn State Nittany Lions visit Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on Sep. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Champaign.
Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Penn State vs. Illinois Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Penn State vs Illinois Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 84.5% confidence.
Penn State vs Illinois Spread Prediction for Week 3
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and Illinois, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.27 Units / 33% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Isaiah Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penn State is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Penn State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 7.41% ROI
- Penn State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Penn State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Illinois is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Illinois is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Illinois is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
#7 Penn State is 12-1 (.923) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .492
#7 Penn State is 9-1 (.900) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2022 season– best in FBS; Average: .474
#7 Penn State is 8-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2022 season– tied for 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .438
#7 Penn State is 14-1 (.933) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .564
Illinois is 3-10 (.231) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497
Illinois is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .470
Illinois was 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2022 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495
Illinois is 4-10 (.267) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .494
Illinois’s QBs has thrown for 3,346 passing yards in 15 games (just 223.1 YPG) since the 2022 season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 218.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois has gained 3,133 yards on 310 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2022 season — third-worst among Power 5 skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2022 season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.