Who will lead the NFL in passing yards in 2022?
Tom Brady led the league last season and it wasn’t particularly close. Brady was the third betting favorite to Patrick Mahomes (entering the season at +950), but he lapped the field, leading the league in pass attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns. He held a comfortable lead heading into Week 18 and ultimately finished with 5,316 yards, 302 more than the second place finisher (Justin Herbert).
It was Brady’s fourth passing crown and first since 2017, but it’s worth noting five quarterbacks finished with over 4,800 yards. We can’t predict random outliers, but we use coaching schemes, passing attempts and yards per attempt (YPA) to study the numbers. There’s just one season leader, so medians and most likely outcomes are of little use. We have to imagine best-case scenarios and see where the betting value lies.
We’ll start by considering the favorites, then run through other names of note. As always, it’s all about the value at the number.