No college football conference will bring more raw intrigue this year than the Big 12.'
Longtime conference stalwarts Texas and Oklahoma are playing their final season in a 30-year partnership before leaving for the SEC. At the same time, four former G5 standouts – UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, and BYU – are all entering the conference.'
All four will get the taste of a true P5 schedule in a deep conference with very few easy wins.'
There's also the remaining Big 12 old guard. Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State will likely have something to say about this year's conference championship before it's all said and done.
With all these disparate groups and a conference that's suddenly swollen to 14 members, who's actually going to come out on top in the Big 12 football championship odds?
Big 12 Football Team Rankings
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| Rank | Team | Record | Next Opponent (Week 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 8-5 | Rice |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 6-7 | Arkansas State |
| 3 | Baylor | 6-7 | Texas State |
| 4 | Kansas State | 10-4 | Southeast Missouri (FCS) |
| 5 | Texas Tech | 8-5 | at Wyoming |
| 6 | TCU | 13-2 | Colorado |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 7-6 | Central Arkansas (FCS) |
| 8 | UCF | 9-5 | Kent State |
| 9 | West Virginia | 5-7 | at Penn State |
| 10 | Kansas | 6-7 | Missouri State (FCS) |
| 11 | Iowa State | 4-8 | Northern Iowa (FCS) |
| 12 | BYU | 8-5 | Sam Houston |
| 13 | Houston | 8-5 | UTSA |
| 14 | Cincinnati | 9-4 | Eastern Kentucky (FCS) |
It always feels dangerous to list chronic underachiever Texas as the top team in the Big 12. This year, though, it's clear that the Texas football odds to win the Big 12 make a lot of sense at the top of the table. Conversations about Texas and the College Football Playoff odds also seem sensible.
College football magazine legend Phil Steele recently came on The Lion's Edge, my handicapping podcast, and was definitive about how good Texas should be in 2023.
“When I did the first write-through process of the magazine, the one thing I had set in stone was that I am not picking Texas/Oklahoma because everybody's gunning for them this year,” Steele said. “Yet I have Texas No. 1, or tied for No. 1, in all eight position categories. They are the most talented team in the league with the fewest amount of question marks.”
If there's one thing we know about second-year head coach Brent Venables, it's that he knows defense. Somehow, the long-time Clemson defensive coordinator presided over the No. 46 defensive unit, per Football Outsiders' FEI Defense rating. The Sooners finished 6-7.
Oklahoma should bring an improved defensive unit in Year 2 of the Venables era, and Dillon Gabriel remains an effective, veteran quarterback.'
This isn't a Sooners team of yore, but they can do enough to reach the championship game and cash some overs in the Oklahoma football odds market, with a dash of luck.'
Baylor won the conference in 2021, but inconsistent quarterback play in 2022 relegated them to a middle-of-the-pack finish.'
With sharper play from Blake Shapen and a typical Dave Aranda defense, Baylor should be in position to compete for a Big 12 championship as the calendar turns to November. Baylor football odds are one of my favorite buys of the summer.'
Phillip Slavin, founder of the Ten12 Network and frequent Lion's Edge guest, agrees.'
“With eight home games on the schedule this year, there's a strong case to make for Baylor to be the true dark horse in the Big 12 this season,” Slavin said.'
I believe Chris Klieman is the best coach in the Big 12, so I refuse to be surprised if last year's conference winner provides a better-than-expected title defense in 2023.
That said, Kansas State lost major offensive pieces in Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn. The offensive line could be the best in the conference, but the remainder of the offense will likely regress, even with some continuity with Will Howard.
Buy in on Kansas State football odds near the top of the market at your own peril.
The Red Raiders have achieved darling status, and Texas Tech football odds are one of the trendiest targets of the summer. After winning eight games in 2022, Joey McGuire brings back 17 starters (including 15 super seniors) for his second season in Lubbock.
The problem is the quarterback room. Texas Tech hasn't had a consistent starter running the offense since Patrick Mahomes left for the NFL.'
If Tyler Shough (or someone else) can break through to remain both healthy and consistently effective, Texas Tech (+1000) is a dark horse to win the Big 12.'
Last year's national runner-up lost a monstrous amount of talent to roster turnover, so it feels right to expect some regression to the mean underneath the roster turnover. TCU football odds are a popular fade target for many bettors this summer.
Perhaps that shouldn't be the case, though. Steele told me that he talked to TCU head coach Sonny Dykes this summer in the course of his regular magazine prep process. Dykes told him that he feels TCU is “as good or better” at several different positions relative to last year's College Football Playoff team.
The Cowboys are often at their best when they're flying under the radar, and that's exactly where the Cowboys have been this offseason. Oklahoma State odds are in the bottom half of the conference table, yet Mike Gundy rarely authors a total belly flop in Stillwater.
Then again, the Cowboys did face a challenging offseason. Quarterback Spencer Sanders left the program, as did Defensive Coordinator Derek Mason. This is the second straight year that Oklahoma State has lost its DC; this time, Gundy opted to bring in Bryan Nardo, who was a Division II defensive coordinator last year at Gannon University.
The positives include a friendly schedule that could have OSU closer to the title game than some might anticipate.