OddsJam's football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 1 odds, picks and predictions today below.
Thursday Night Football
The Bills are currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, but for the NFL’s Kickoff Game, I am riding with the defending champions.
Sean McVay is 5-0 in his career in Week 1, while defending Super Bowl champs are 18-3 straight up on opening n ight in the last 21 years.'
Tre'Davious White being out of this game is a big deal, as I think Matthew Stafford and company have a big day through the air.
Early Sunday NFL Slate
| 1 p.m. ET
This is a tough one that I admittedly went back and forth on, as these are two teams that I am actively looking to fade. The Falcons are a legitimate option to end the season with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, whereas the Saints are also projected to take a major step back with Sean Payton retiring in the offseason.
With that said, the Falcons looked better than expected in the preseason, and Week 1 starting quarterback Marcus Mariota has legitimately looked good as well. So, I'll ride with the home team to keep this one somewhat close.
| 1 p.m. ET
This is going to be an incredibly entertaining game, with the Baker Mayfield revenge tour starting off with a bang going against his former team that traded him away.
The Browns will be starting Jacoby Brissett in this game, as their starting QB Deshaun Watson is suspended for the first 11 games.
Overall, I view these teams as relatively equal in terms of overall talent, but I give the Panthers the slight edge at quarterback with Mayfield. That, coupled with the Panthers being at home, leads me to laying the points with the Panthers here.
| 1 p.m. ET
The Bears, along with the Falcons as I mentioned earlier, are a team that could easily end the season with the worst record in the NFL but did have a promising preseason.
But still, this Bears roster is just so, so bad. According to PFF, they have the second-worst offensive line in the NFL, coupled with the worst-rated skill positions.'
While I do think San Francisco’s new starting QB Trey Lance is going to have some growing pains, this 49ers defensive line is going to feast.'
| 1 p.m. ET
The Steelers find themselves in a rare position where they lost a future Hall of Fame QB to retirement in the offseason, but figure to actually be better at QB than they were last year.
It was sad to watch, but Big Ben was a shell of himself last year. Out of 37 QBs that qualified for the minimum number of snaps played, Ben Roethlisberger was rated the worst QB in the entire NFL, according to PFF. So, whether it is Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, I am expecting the Steelers to get better QB play than they did last year.
That, coupled with the Steelers’ stout defense, makes me believe this game will be closer than the spread indicates. I'll take the points with the Steelers.
| 1 p.m. ET
The Lions were interesting last year. They only won three games, but covered in 11 of 17, finishing 1-7 in one-score games.
The Eagles, meanwhile, spent the 2021 season pummeling the bad teams but couldn't beat the good ones. The Eagles made significant upgrades to their roster in the offseason, while the Lions are still starting Jared Goff at QB.
These two teams played last year, with the Eagles taking a blow torch to the Lions and winning 44-6. They probably won't win by 38 again this year, but I love laying the points with the Eagles in this one.
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| 1 p.m. ET
In our 2022 NFL Power Rankings, the Texans were given the honor of being ranked 32nd (out of 32 teams) in the NFL. So, no, we are not high on the Texans this year.
With that said, 8 points is just too rich for my blood. Since head coach Frank Reich has been coaching the Colts, they have yet to win a game in Week 1. The Colts are notorious for starting slow before picking it up as the season goes along.
There are some gross loss es in this five-game stretch too. In 2020, the Jaguars won exactly one game all year. Guess what their one win was? If you guessed against the Colts in Week 1, you are correct.
I'll rely on the Texans being able to keep this within a touchdown.
| 1 p.m. ET
This is another game featuring two teams that I am actively looking to fade this year. The Dolphins are getting a little bit too much love, in my opinion, after the Tyreek Hill trade. They still need Tua Tagovailoa to do something he's never done in his NFL career: be a good quarterback.
With that said, the Patriots are even more juicy to fade. The offense, led by two disaster coaches in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, has reportedly been struggling mightily in training camp.
The Patriots also made their bones on dominating the weaker competition last year, only winning three games (out of 10) against teams with a winning record in 2021. That includes going 0-2 against these same Dolphins.'
Give me the home team in this one.
| 1 p.m. ET
**Here we have it. My favorite pick of the slate!**
I am hammering the Ravens in this one. The Jets will presumably be starting the corpse of Joe Flacco at QB, with Zach Wilson still nursing a knee injury. Flacco, by the way, has won two games total in the three years since he was traded by the Ravens. He went 2-6 with the Broncos in 2019, and a combined 0-5 with the Jets the previous two seasons.
The Ravens also have an MO of blowing out teams in Week 1. From 2017-2020, they went 4-0 in Week 1, out-scoring their opponents by an of 36.25 points, or a total of 145.
So, yeah, I'll take the points with the Ravens