Lionel Messi made history on Wednesday night when he became the first Inter Miami player to score multiple goals in consecutive games. He achieved this in his first two starts for the MLS franchise. Check out our Lionel Messi Leagues Cup picks for Sunday's Inter Miami vs. FC Dallas matchup.
Miami head coach Tata Martino said he's running out of superlatives for Messi after the Argentine scored another brace midweek.
Messi has six goal involvements in three games for his new team, scoring five times. He could have had a hat-trick against Orlando but instead allowed Josef Martinez to take the second-half penalty in the 3-1 win.
Miami are four wins away from lifting the Leagues Cup. Up next is FC Dallas in the Round of 16.
For their part, Dallas has a negative goal differential in MLS this season. Can Messi expose the defense and send his side into the last eight?
Here is our best Lionel Messi Leagues Cup pick for Sunday's Inter Miami vs. FC Dallas matchup (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lionel Messi Leagues Cup pick: Inter Miami vs. FC Dallas
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Lionel Messi has made only two starts for Miami and is just one goal behind Minnesota United's Bongokuhle Hlongwane (six) for the competition's top scorer.
Next up for Messi is a Dallas defense that's giving up 1.1 goals per game in MLS this season. Dallas has also conceded on average a goal a game in the Leagues Cup.
This is Messi's first road game for Miami, and FC Dallas are better at home than away. Six of their eight wins this season have come at Toyota Stadium. They've given up 10 goals in 11 home games in MLS. Dallas' xGA at home is 1.17 compared to 1.67 on the road.
Ahead of the Leagues Cup break, Dallas had conceded four goals in three MLS games. During his spell at PSG, Lionel Messi played 75 games in all competitions. He was decisive 66 times (32 goals, 34 assists), as only Kylian Mbappe (107 times) was involved in more goals than him with the club since his first game with the Parisiens. Some of those matches were against elite European opposition.
Messi played his first full game for Miami on Wednesday. The 36-year-old is proving his match fitness and is the focal point of his team. He doesn't have to do much running, and defenses are struggling to mark him. Everything he's touching is turning to gold. We have to back him to continue his form against a defense that has difficulty shutting out offenses.
Dallas have a better first-half showing defensively than in the second half. Six of eleven goals conceded at home have been given up in the second half this MLS season, and all of their goals conceded in the Leagues Cup have come in the second half. That's the specific period we're targeting in our Messi prop. The numbers work for us and boost our profits.
Lionel Messi best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Messi to score in 2nd half | Messi to score in 2nd half | Messi to score in 2nd half | Messi to score in 2nd half | Messi to score in 2nd half |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +160 |
The best price for Messi as an anytime scorer is -120 via PointsBet. Statistically, the favorable period for him to score against Dallas is after halftime. Our play has increased value at +160. If we're backing him to score, we may as well target the time in the match when the analytics suggest he's most likely to do so. PointsBet is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering this prop.
As of Saturday morning, FanDuel is the only other book among our best sports betting sites to offer Messi scoring props. Its anytime scorer price for the Argentine is -155. Messi is +320 to score two-plus at FanDuel.
Messi has come up against stronger defenses than FC Dallas'. Inter Miami have scored nine goals since he arrived. He and his former Barcelona teammates are gelling nicely, which could be too much for Dallas on Sunday, especially in the latter stages.
Inter Miami vs. FC Dallas game info
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 6 at 8 p.m. ET
- TV: Apple TV+
- Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
- Weather: 84 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds
Lionel Messi Leagues Cup pick made 08/05/2023 at 9 a.m. ET.
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