Let’s take a look at some No Runs First Inning prop bet odds and picks for today’s game: Padres vs. Dodgers.
While this may seem like a matchup of stout lineups, this actually has more potential to be a pitcher’s duel than a laser show, and it’s all because of the men on the mound. Getting us started at Chavez Ravine will be Dustin May. This will be just May’s third start back from Tommy John, but he has looked electric in his first two outings. For his career, he holds a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while averaging a strikeout per inning. In addition, his stuff has looked as electric as ever. No one has gotten a hit off his 98 mph sinker yet this season, and this Padres lineup that ranks 21st in first-inning runs per game on the road does not show much promise, despite having star power at the top of their lineup.
The other half of this inning will be a tall task for Yu Darvish as the Dodgers enter boasting the best first inning runs per game rate in the majors. Darvish has seen a ton of the Dodgers bats over the course of his career, but the top three of the order have had some success against him. Betts is hitting .217 off Darvish, Turner is hitting .353, and Freeman is hitting .368. However, Freeman and Turner are due for some sizable regression as their xBAs are .291 and .326, respectively. Then as for Betts, he’s due for some positive regression, but his xBA is just 21 points higher, and his slugging is expected to drop significantly. In fact, all three of their xSLGs are substantially lower than their career percentages off Darvish. So if the numbers are correct, expect a clean bottom of the first.