MLB schedule today has 5 games
Only four scheduled games were on the betting board for Thursday, but a fifth game was added when some gnarly storms in the Great Lakes region forced an early postponement between the Angels and Tigers. Now the teams will play two at Comerica Park with a traditional doubleheader of afternoon games to fill out a five-game slate.
Offense remained above league average the last two days, as we’ve seen a .255/.323/.437 slash, .328 wOBA, and a 108 wRC+ with a 13.8% HR/FB%. As has been the case here in the second half, we haven’t seen a lot of pop ups for one reason or another, so the fly balls have been more hurtful for pitchers and more productive for hitters, creating the uptick in offense that we’ve seen.
Anyway, consider this to be the calm before the weekend storm, as we’ll have 15 games per day and a bunch of Trade Deadline news, notes, deals, and rumors. Speaking of which, I am updating a live Trade Deadline blog and have filled in notes on the completed deals thus far, as well as keeping track of the odds of where certain players may end up.
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Follow me on Twitter, @SkatingTripods, to get the article right as it goes live. (Tracking sheet)
VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the July 27 card (odds from DraftKings):
Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-215, 9)
The Mets came up on the short end and left the Bronx with a split after the latest installment of the Subway Series as they hit a really interesting crossroads this weekend. They are 7.5 games out of a playoff spot with a four-game series against the Nationals, who are battling admirably, but still have the second-worst record in the NL. It may be too late for the Mets to buy, but could a strong showing this weekend keep them from selling?
Kodai Senga will attempt to set the tone. He has a 3.27 ERA with a 3.64 xERA and a 3.81 FIP over his 99 innings pitched. Senga has 125 strikeouts against 50 walks with a 29.7% K% that is excellent and an 11.9% BB% that is not. The Nationals have been one of the league’s top teams in strikeout avoidance this season, so that will be interesting to follow here and throughout the series.
Senga has allowed a 38.3% Hard Hit% and a very good 5.8% Barrel%, so the walks are really the only glaring hiccup in his profile. He only lasted 3.1 innings last time out as he got into some trouble, but he has a 2.76 ERA with a 3.14 FIP in his last 62 innings of work covering 11 starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last six outings.
Regression is still lurking for Josiah Gray. He’s got a 3.45 ERA with a 4.55 xERA and a 4.77 FIP over his 112.1 innings of work. He, too, has a BB issue with a 10.4% BB% and doesn’t have the same strikeout rate as Senga at 20%. He’s been running hot on the LOB% side all season and now has an 82.9% mark, including an 84.1% LOB% over his last five starts. He allowed a run on four hits to the Giants last time out after giving up four runs on 10 hits in his first start after the Break. In two starts since the Break, he’s only struck out six of the 53 batters that he has faced, but he has also allowed just a 21.4% Hard Hit%.
The other thing is that it’s going to be in the 90s in Queens with humid conditions and a very helpful breeze blowing out. That could definitely lead to some offense, so it’s a stay away game for me.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 9.5)
Justin Steele and Miles Mikolas meet in this NL Central showdown, as the Cubs sit just one game away from the .500 mark and 4.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. They’re six back in the division, as they’ve gone 8-4 in the second half and have won seven of the last eight and five in a row.