MLB schedule today has 10 games
A new week begins in Major League Baseball with 10 games on the card. The Trade Deadline is eight days away, so the discomfort level ramps up for the teams that could be sellers and the young players on contenders who know that they could be going from the penthouse to the outhouse.
Much like I did last year, I’ll be doing a Trade Deadline live blog on actual deadline day, which is August 1, so there won’t be any picks that day. I think it’s cruel that there are games that day, since it can be an extremely emotional day for everybody. Also, from a betting standpoint, players are removed from the lineup or sometimes starters are even changed.
I’ll be firing up that file today so I can hit the trades that have already taken place, but it will get a lot busier next Monday and Tuesday. I’ll do the article like normal next Monday, though it’ll probably be a low-volume day, and then spend the two days covering trades.
With that housekeeping out of the way, let’s look at offense from the weekend. Hitters collectively slashed .247/.320/.429 with a .324 wOBA and a 106 wRC+ from Friday-Sunday. Strikeouts are up over the last little while, which I’m not sure what to think about that. The HR/FB% was 14.7%, so that did pop back up after being down a bit on Wednesday and Thursday.
More homers, more strikeouts, as it doesn’t seem like we’re seeing as many stolen bases, so the players continue to adjust to the ever-changing dynamics of the league.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the July 24 card (odds from DraftKings):
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (-155, 9.5)
The last time Patrick Corbin was a -150 or higher favorite was June 15 of last season when he faced the Pirates and Tyler Anderson. That appears to be the case today against Jake Bird and the Rockies. Bird will be the opener and it seems like Karl Kauffmann has a good chance to bulk since he has been recalled.
The Rockies were missing CJ Cron and Kris Bryant yesterday and those are two huge components against lefties as two of the better right-handed sticks in this lineup, although the Rockies only have three dudes with a wRC+ over 100 against lefties – Randal Grichuk, Jurickson Profar, and Mike Moustakas. Moustakas is no longer on the roster. It’s been a really bad split for them throughout the season, so that could help Corbin, who needs all the help he can get. He’s got a 4.89 ERA with a 6.17 xERA and a 4.88 FIP in his 114 innings of work.
His last two starts have been solid with four runs allowed on 11 hits in 12.1 innings with 12 strikeouts against two walks and he has the chance to keep it going here.
Bird has worked 58 innings over 45 appearances and this will be his third start. He has a 4.03 ERA with a 4.29 xERA and a 3.28 FIP with good home run prevention numbers and a decent K/BB ratio. He has given up runs in four of his last seven appearances, including three the last time he opened on July 18. He went two innings the first time he opened, but only went one the last time.
Kauffmann has a 10.19 ERA and a 9.08 xERA in his 17.2 MLB innings with more walks than strikeouts and three homers allowed. He has a 6.94 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.61 FIP, so that isn’t a great look either. It’s possible that Corbin isn’t enough of a favorite here, especially if Cron and Bryant are out again, but laying a big number with Corbin doesn’t seem like a fun thing to do.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 9)
The Reds and Brewers only have three head-to-head meetings left and they will be today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. It will be games against other teams that decide the NL Central champion, which could be a good thing for Cincinnati. The Reds are 2-8 against Milwaukee this season and have lost five of the last six. Those six games were played going into the All-Star Break and coming out of it, as Brewers pitchers held the Reds to three runs in the three-game series at Great American Ball Park.
Unless something changes here at American Family Field, there will be a lot of pressure on Graham Ashcraft. He’s the Game 1 starters and he’s been on a really nice run in his last four starts with five runs allowed on 20 hits in 24.2 innings of work. The peripherals are not exciting, as his 1.82 ERA comes with a 4.54 FIP. He’s only got 14 strikeouts in that span against nine walks and has been fortunate to run a .254 BABIP with a 92.2% LOB%.
In his defense, he’s allowed just a 34.2% Hard Hit% and deserves a lot of credit for that. However, he’s still a guy working with pretty thin margins given the ugly K/BB numbers. It would be nice to see his raw stuff convert to more strikeouts, but that is not the case to this point.
Colin Rea, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta are the listed starters in this series for the Brewers, so this is a game that the Reds should really prioritize. Rea has a 4.64 ERA with a 4.08 xERA and a 4.80 FIP over his 85.1 innings of work. He has allowed 14 homers on the season and that’s been his biggest issue, as he’s allowed under a hit per inning otherwise with a 70/26 K/BB ratio.
Homers don’t count towards BABIP, but I feel like he’s really fortunate to have a .256 BABIP against with his 42.3% Hard Hit%. He only has a 6.2% Barrel%, so he’s been a bit unlucky that most barrels have left the yard. It isn’t a very sexy profile and this is a game where both guys will be BABIP-dependent and that makes for a wide range of outcomes.
In 10 games, the teams have averaged seven runs per game. The Reds have only scored 2.9 runs per game and the Brewers have scored 4.1. Milwaukee’s pen is in better shape here, as the Reds have won five in a row, which means using all of their high-leverage guys pretty regularly. Alexis Diaz and Lucas Sims have each pitched three of the last five and Ian Gibaut has worked back-to-back days.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 9.5)
There was no morning line for this one, as Arizona had not yet named a starter. With Adam Wainwright coming back from the IL, this is quite a messy game. It is Ryne Nelson’s day, but there was some debate as to whether or not he’d actually go. He’s thrown 106.1 innings this season after throwing 154.1 last season and 116.1 in 2021, so his innings workload is actually in pretty decent shape.
Also, Nelson has been throwing the ball rather well of late. He has a 4.82 ERA with a 4.94 xERA and a 4.74 FIP in his 20 starts, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. He gave up seven runs to the Mets in his last start of the first half, but has shut down the Blue Jays and Braves in his last two outings. He’s allowed three earned runs on 12 hits in 12.2 innings with eight strikeouts against a walk.
Wainwright is allegedly good for 65 pitches today, as he’s been activated from the IL following a shoulder injury. He’s made exactly zero rehab appearances, as he’s simply done bullpens and sim games. He hasn’t pitched since July 4 when he allowed seven runs over 3.1 innings to the Marlins. In Wainwright’s last three starts, he allowed 20 runs on 24 hits in just eight innings pitched.
Maybe Wainwright was actually hurt. Maybe at age 41, his body is just done. He turns 42 on August 30. It’s sad to see it end like this with a 7.66 ERA and a 5.88 FIP, but that’s what he currently looks like and I couldn’t trust him today against any lineup with a pulse. He’s allowed at least three runs in each of his 11 starts, so expect at least that and possibly more.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-265, 8.5)
The Padres are a massive home favorite here in what amounts to be a critically important series. They need a sweep here to really position themselves better in the NL Wild Card chase and may be able to avoid being a seller. But, it starts with beating up on a bad team and the Pirates are a bad team. They’ve dropped all the way to last place in the NL Central and this is a golden opportunity for the Padres to keep making a push.
Quinn Priester will make his second MLB start in this one. He had three perfect innings to start his MLB career with eight ground ball outs. He gave up a walk, homer, walk, and double the second time through, but then went single, double, double, homer, single the third time through before being pulled with a 7-0 deficit.
Priester wasn’t hit all that hard, as he left that start with a 23.8% Hard Hit%, but things really snowballed very quickly for him. He only struck out two, so that didn’t really help his margin for error any.
Yu Darvish has a 4.36 ERA with a 3.57 xERA and a 3.77 FIP, so there are some positive regression signs in his profile going into this outing. He has a solid 25.9% K% and has gotten really unlucky in the BABIP department with a .311 mark. His 70.8% LOB% is also the lowest of his career since his rookie season back in 2012. Since coming back from the Break, he’s allowed one run on nine hits with 16 strikeouts against five walks in 12 innings against the Phillies and Blue Jays.
Darvish battled a viral illness that kept him out of action for over two weeks right before the Break, but he seems to be just fine now and back to his normal self. Even as a home team likely to only bat eight times here, the Padres run line is -130 or -135. Honestly, it could be worth it. I’m not on it, but it’s one of the bets I think makes some sense today.