Nine teams around Major League Baseball go for sweeps Sunday before entering the last week of July. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.
Underdogs feasted Saturday, winning 10 of the 15 games on the slate. Four of those victories were by teams with odds of +165 or higher, which meant bettors were in line for big paydays if they picked the correct upsets. Will 'dogs continue to bark Sunday?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
Odds via DraftKings
- San Diego Padres (-230) vs. Detroit Tigers (+195)
- Kansas City Royals (+170) vs. New York Yankees (-200)
- San Francisco Giants (-115) vs. Washington Nationals (-105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-110)
- Baltimore Orioles (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-145) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+125)
- Colorado Rockies (+220) vs. Miami Marlins (-260)
- Chicago White Sox (+130) vs. Minnesota Twins (-150)
- Atlanta Braves (-165) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+140)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-145) vs. Chicago Cubs (+125)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) vs. Texas Rangers (+100)
- Houston Astros (-230) vs. Oakland Athletics (+195)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) vs. Los Angeles A ngels (-125)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+115) vs. Seattle Mariners (-135)
- New York Mets (+125) vs. Boston Red Sox (-145)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Joe Musgrove to record a win (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Tigers ????
- Player prop: Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) vs. Rangers ???
- Player prop: Byron Buxton Under 0.5 hits (+125 via PointsBet) vs. White Sox ???
- Total: Astros-Athletics Under 8.5 (-105 via PointsBet) ????
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Sunday's MLB prop picks
Prior to Joe Musgrove's last start, Mike Kurlan of Gaining the Edge pointed out that Musgrove had been on a t ear over the last month, as he switched to a more curveball-heavy arsenal and backed off using his fastball some. That change resulted in elite barrel percentages, a quality strikeout-to-walk ratio, O-Swing %, and 1.38 ERA over a four-start span. All Musgrove did to back that up was silence a red-hot Toronto Blue Jays offense that had won eight of nine games, holding them to one earned run on five hits over six innings.
Comparatively, Musgrove should not find too much of a challenge with a Detroit Tigers lineup that ranks 28th or worse in wRC+ and slugging. And despite Detroit ranking in the top 10 of the league in fly-ball percentage for the season, Musgrove does a great job keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just one home run over his last 38 innings.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook with even-money odds for this wager, as PointsBet and Caesars are at -105 and -107, respectively.
L os Angeles Dodgers outfielder/second baseman Mookie Betts is amid his fourth stretch of the season where he has not homered for six or more consecutive games. But we expect the man who ranks fourth in MLB in home runs to snap his homerless streak against a pitcher with a poor 5.55 ERA over his last seven starts.
Martin Perez has allowed 14 of his 17 home runs to right-handed hitters and surrendered at least one home run in five of his previous six starts. His 5.59 xERA is much worse than his actual 4.84 ERA, and his .528 xSLG against his sinker is problematic, considering he throws it nearly 40% of the time.
This is a three-star play as Betts ranks third among all hitters (min. 80 PA) with a 1.082 OPS against southpaws, and his 10 home runs in the split are tied for third among all such players. The +340 odds found at FanDuel seem like a steal, considering Betts is as low as +280 at PointsBet to go yard.
The Minnesota Twins enter Sunday with a .266/.355/.513 post-All-Star break slash line, after collectively slashing .232/.309/.400 in the first half of the season. That is a big reason the Twins scored five or more runs in seven of eight games in that stretch, including their first five-game span with five-plus runs in each game. However, outfielder Byron Buxton has not been a big contributor to that, as his two home runs are his only two hits in his last 25 at-bats entering the weekend, with 13 strikeouts in that span.
Buxton has had similar struggles against Chicago White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, going just 2-for-19 with one home run and eight strikeouts in their encounters. Giolito allowed four or fewer hits in three of his last five starts, and we expect him to hold Buxton hitless as long as he is in the game.
DraftKings has the same +125 odds for this wager, while Caesars is lower at +113.
Sunday's MLB game picks
The Houston Astros are 8-1 against the Oakland Athletics this year, and have feasted on poor competition all season, going 27-11 against teams under .500. But with their moneyline odds being so low in this game, we see better value on the Under, considering the Astros have held Oakland to 18 total runs in those nine games while scoring five or fewer runs six times themselves.
A's starter Luis Medina is coming off his best start of the season, allowing just four baserunners in 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Boston Red Sox. Meanwhile, Astros starter Hunter Brown has allowed nine earned runs in his last 8 1/3 innings, but one of those starts was at Coors Field, and his .303 xwOBA still ranks in the top eight of all AL West starting pitchers.
This is a four-star play, as the Under has cashed 51% of the time in Oa kland's home games (26-25-2) compared to a 39.5% cash rate in their away games and has cashed more in Houston's division games (53.1%) than non-division games (49.2%).
PointsBet is the only one of our best sportsbooks not juiced to the Under with a total of 8.5 runs.
MLB best bets made 7/23/2023 at 7:23 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
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