Five new series begin on Tuesday, leading to a full slate of 15 games around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
The two series between National League teams are the most impactful of those beginning on Tuesday.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies are potential playoff teams, with the Brewers leading the NL Central and the Phillies just a half game out of a wild card spot. Meanwhile, the matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves pairs two teams that spent most of the first half in first place before the Los Angeles Dodgers overtook Arizona in the NL West.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and BetRivers; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
- Milwaukee Brewers (+175) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-205)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+105) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-125)
- Cleveland Guardians (-105) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)
- San Diego Padres (-120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+100)
- San Francisco Giants (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+115)
- Chicago White Sox (-105) vs. New York Mets (-115)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+175) vs. Atlanta Braves (-205)
- Miami Marlins (+125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
- Washington Nationals (+150) vs. Chicago Cubs (-175)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+115) vs. Texas Rangers (-135)
- Detroit Tigers (-150) vs. Kansas City Royal s (+130)
- Houston Astros (OFF) vs. Colorado Rockies
- New York Yankees (-110) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-110)
- Boston Red Sox (OFF) vs. Oakland Athletics
- Minnesota Twins (+135) vs. Seattle Mariners (-155)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player Prop: Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs scored (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Brewers ????
- Player Prop: Joe Musgrove Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-123 via Caesars) vs. Blue Jays ????
- Player Prop: Nathan Eovaldi to record a win (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Rays ???
- Upset: Nationals ML vs. Cubs (+155 via BetRivers) ???
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Trea Turner is still sec ond on the Philadelphia Phillies with 52 runs scored despite a subpar .301 OBP and .687 OPS. However, he's been enjoying great career success against Julio Teheran, slashing .400/.444/.600 over 25 career at-bats.
It helps that Bryce Harper hits behind him, as Harper boasts an even more eye-popping .404/.533/1.043 slash line across 47 at-bats against Teheran, with 12 of his 19 hits going for extra bases (including nine home runs). Turner ended a streak of four games without a run (his longest since the end of May) after scoring during the team's series finale against the San Diego Padres. And considering three of Teheran's four primary pitches come with expected batting averages higher than his actual batting average allowed, regression should be coming for a pitcher whose strikeout-to-walk ratio is his best since 2016.
We're getting slightly better value at DraftKings, as the Over is as high as -13 5 through FanDuel.
The Toronto Blue Jays are raking during a current 8-1 stretch while ranking fourth in runs scored, sixth in wRC+, and fifth in BABIP entering Monday. However, that hot streak came against three pitching staffs (Arozina Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, and the Detroit Tigers) that rank 20th or worse in starting pitching ERA. We expect regression against Padres righty Joe Musgrove.
The hurler has been using his curveball much more while decreasing his fastball usage over the last four starts, according to Mike Kurlan of Gaining the Edge. That's resulting in elite barrel percentages, a quality strikeout-to-walk ratio, O-Swing %, and a 1.38 ERA over that span. This is a confident four-star play, as Musgrove ranks top-five in FIP (2.56) among all starting pitchers since May 26. It would be a more confident five-star play if we didn't fear the rust factor during Musgrove's first start back after a long All-Star Break layoff.
With DraftKings at -130 to back the Under, Caesars is our go-to shop.
Check out our Cy Young odds.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed four earned runs in three of his last four road starts, including a June 10 road outing against the Tampa Bay Rays. However, he still notched a win that day while outpitching Taj Bradley, who was tagged for four earned runs in a much shorter appearance (3 2/3 innings versus Eovaldi's 6 1/3 innings). Eovaldi's chances to win during the rematch are strong, as he's posted a .200 opponents' batting average and 0.91 WHIP across seven home starts, and an elite 1.73 groundout to air out ratio. Meanwhile, Bradley has pitched to a 7.18 ERA over his last seven starts while allowing 12 earned runs across his previous 7 1/3 road innings.
This is a three-star play, as since Jun e 26 no pitcher (minimum 10 innings pitched) has posted a worse FIP (9.12) than Bradley. His .364 BABIP ranks 13th during that span, which lowers our expectations for the righty, and his 5.66 xFIP in that stretch suggests regression is coming.
Caesars and PointsBet offer +139 and +140 odds, respectively, for Eovaldi to earn the win, so the best value for this wager is at DraftKings among our best sportsbooks.
Check out our rookie of the year odds.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Upset: Nationals ML vs. Cubs (+155 via BetRivers) ???
The Chicago Cubs are even bigger favorites over the Washington Nationals on Tuesday after getting -145 odds on Monday. Those are curious odds because they're sending Jameson Taillon to the mound, and the team is just 3-12 during his starts. Oddsmakers are putting too much stock in Taillon's eight-inning scoreless outing during his last start. We view that as a one-off revenge game at Yankee Stadium after he pitched for the New York Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have played their best baseball on the road all season, and they would even their away record at .500 with a win on Tuesday (they're 17 games under .500 at home). That includes a respectable 3-2 record during Patrick Corbin's last five road starts.
The Cubs rank 13th in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching, but a team that's won just six of its last 18 games shouldn't be this much of a favorite.
MLB best bets made 7/18/2023 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
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