Thursday features an eight-game MLB slate, including four games beginning at 6:10 p.m. or later, which I will touch on below: Orioles vs. Guardians, Rangers vs. Red Sox, Rockies vs. Braves and Brewers vs. Diamondbacks.
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Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Thursday?
Kyle Bradish vs. Shane Bieber (full projections here)
Since returning from the minors in late July, Bradish has excelled in six starts (33 2/3 IP, 11 BB, 33 K, 3.85 xFIP). Perhaps the rookie was a bit unlucky early, allowing 11 homers in his first 10 MLB starts from late April through mid-June (46.1 IP, 18 BB, 46 K, 7.38 ERA, 4.06 xFIP).
Now that the home run rate has normalized, Bradish has excelled. He offers plus stuff, and his command has appeared sharper than scouting reports indicate. I suspect Bradish could develop into a mid-rotation arm — with upside — for the Orioles, and he’s flashed that potential of late while continually tweaking his pitch mix:
Kyle Bradish threw his slider 51% of the time last night, which was by far a season high.
His next highest slider usage? 35.6% on May 10 – the game in which he struck out 11 batters over 7 IP.
Notice a pattern? pic.twitter.com/CMneHCbkym
— Locked On Orioles (@LockedOnOrioles) August 27, 2022
Cleveland’s offense should be able to grind Bradish down, eventually. The Guardians carry the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (17.6%) against right-handed pitching and excel at fouling pitches off and working deep counts.
If Bradish does his job, this should be a battle between two elite and relatively well-rested bullpens. Cleveland has the superior Model Weighted ERA (3.07 to 3.64) in my projections; its bullpen has the lowest xFIP (3.47) and second-lowest SIERA (3.24) in MLB, and it ranks fifth in strikeout minus walk rate or K-BB%. Baltimore ranks fifth, 10th, and 12th in those three categories, including a relatively significant contribution from a since-traded Jorge Lopez.
While Cleveland has the superior defensive metrics on the season (4th vs. 9th in Defensive Runs Saved; 4th vs. 20th in Outs Above Average), I project Baltimore as the superior defensive squad for Thursday. The Orioles’ dramatic turnaround on the defensive end (24th in DRS, 28th in OAA in 2021) has played a significant part in their success this season.
Jorge Mateo, slick wit it pic.twitter.com/HHbVF62hwJ
— Zachary Silver (@zachsilver) August 26, 2022