UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for June 17 with Martin Vettori v Jared Cannonier headlining the event. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Martin Vettori v Jared Cannonier Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event
| Saturday, June 17 | UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Martin Vettori v Jared Cannonier |
| Rounds: | 4.5 Rounds (Over -180 / Under +150) |
| Fight Time: | Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
| Arena: | UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV |
| TV: | ESPN |
UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis
2-1 last week in UFC, but the big play lost so we'll try and improve this week. This is a big betting week in MMA as there is an event in PFL, Bellator and UFC and I will have plays in all three.
Grab the plays here: http://wt.buzz/al
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Alessandro Costa Inside The Distance -130
Jimmy Flick makes his second fight since his return to the octagon, and I think this fight will go about as good as his fight against Charles Johnson went.
Johnson isn't a great UFC fighter as he's 2-3 in the UFC with one win being a split decision, and the other win being a a first round KO of Flick. Flick is known as a submission guy as he won by submission on Contender Series and in his UFC debut in 2020, but that's all he has.
In his last 16 fights he's won 10 of them, all by submission, and he's lost all the others so if he doesn't submit his opponent he loses.
He took time off, and came back to the UFC after he got divorced, lost his job, and his life outside fighting wasn't going well at all. He looked terrible against Johnson, and Costa is no joke. He lost his UFC debut to Amir Albazi and that loss doesn't look bad at all.
He took the fight on short notice and held his own in the first round before he got tired. With a full camp, he won't have cardio issues and his striking will be dominant over Flick.
If he stays out of the submissions, he'll piece Flick apart and eventually get the knockout, and based on what I saw from Flick in his last fight, staying out of Flick's submission won't be difficult.
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Denys Bondar -130 v Carlos Hernandez
Lot of unknowns here, but I'm not very high on Hernandez's skill set as he really doesn't do much well. He won a split decision against Altamirano, and then got submitted in round 1 by Allan Nascimento, but beating Altamirano isn't that impressive.
We had bet on Bondar in his UFC debut to beat Malcolm Gordon, but he broke his arm early in the fight in a scramble.
Bondar comes from a pretty violent league where they allow quite a few things that the UFC doesn't allow so we know he's tough, and he won his eight previous fights before his UFC debut all by finish.
I lean Bondar in this fight, but not enough for me to make an investment on him. This fight to not go the distance would be the way to go.
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Modestas Bukauskas -195 v Zac Pauga
I've followed Pauga since week one on his season of The Ultimate Fighter, and he's decent, but he got knocked out by Muhammad Osman, and won a decision against Jordan Wright by having over 8 minutes of control, but it wasn't that impressive of a win.
I think Bucauskas has him covered in this fight, and I don't see Bukauskas staying stationary to let Paugua control him. We correctly predicted Bukauskus to upset Tyson Pedro last fight by using his movement, speed and cardio to tire out Pedro and he did exactly that. I think he utilizes the same tools, and don't underestimate the motivation of Modestas.
He was cut from the UFC, won some regional fights to get another chance in the UFC, and based on how good he looked against Pedro, I think he's found new life and a real sense of controlled urgency. I think he wins here, and if you want a better price, take him to win by decision.
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Ronnie Lawrence -180 over Dan Argueta
Two grapplers here so expect a long fight so I will say this fight is a To Start Round 2 parlay piece for sure. As for the side, I think it's dog or pass.
Lawrence got dominated last fight when Kakhramonov pushed the offense forward, and while Argueta isn't nearly as good as Kakhramonov, he will get aggressive early and he'll try and crowd Lawrence and work his own wrestling game.
Argueta can gas himself so I don't totally trust him, but I definitely don't trust Lawrence at -180. I'll take this fight to start round 2 and I'll parlay it with a few other props.
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Tereza Bleda -240 v Gabriella Fernandez
Fernandez lost her debut to Jasmine Jasudavicius by getting taken down four times, but that loss doesn't look as bad now after Jasmine dominated Miranda Maverick.
Bleda's style is similar to Jasmine's in that she likes to grapple, get takedowns, and stay on the ground. However, I don't think she's as good as Jasmine. She's only 21 years old and I wonder if she's been elevated too early.
She got knocked out by Natalia Silva in her last fight, but the concern with Bleda is cardio. She gasses pretty easily, and Fernandes is a great striker that will torch Bleda on the feet if she stuffs takedowns.
I'll take the underdog in this one as I think Fernandes can land enough strikes to damage Bleda, and Fernandes has one thing to work on in camp for this fight…takedown defense. If she's able to make Bleda work hard for takedowns, Bleda will gas and if she keeps it on the feet look for a KO from Fernandes.
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Christian Quinonez -161 v Kyung Ho Kang
Quinonez has a lot of stoppages in his short career, but I think Kang can use his jab and toughness to extend the fight. Christian will probably go for takedowns as that's been a problem for Kang in the past.