A new week in Major League Baseball begins with a small eight-game slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
The lone game on Monday's slate between divisional opponents is the clash between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers, as the Angels try to shorten the 6.5-game gap between them and the first-place Rangers. Elsewhere, 30.5 games separate the MLB-best Tampa Bay Rays and MLB-worst Oakland Athletics as they begin a four-game series.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings, WynnBet, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Atlanta Braves (OFF) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Colorado Rockies (+215) vs. Boston Red Sox (-255)
- San Francisco Giants (-125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+105)
- Los Angeles Angels (+130) vs. Texas Rangers (-150)
- Cincinnati Reds (-105) vs. Kansas City Royals (-115)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-260) vs. Oakland Athletics (+220)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
- Miami Marlins (+115) vs. Seattle Mariners (-135)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 RBIs (+260 via PointsBet) vs. Red Sox ???
- Player prop: Zach Eflin to record a win (OFF) vs. Athletics ???
- Player prop: Bryce Miller Under 2.5 earned runs (-120 via DraftKings) vs. Marlins ???
- Moneyline: Royals ML vs. Reds (-115 via WynnBet) ????
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Monday's MLB prop picks
Colorado Rockies slugger Ryan McMahon leads the team with 114 total bases (23 more than the next closest hitter) and has an excellent chance for another successful offensive day when facing an opposing pitcher who has not been good against left-handed hitters.
Boston Red Sox southpaw James Paxton has allowed lefties a .350 OBA and pitched to a 2.31 WHIP in that split. McMahon is 0-for-2 in his career against Paxton but hits behind Jurickson Profar in the lineup, who has a .900 OPS in 10 career at-bats against Paxton. We are getting a great price at this number, considering McMahon has an RBI in four of his previous eight games and three of his last seven road games.
Considering the next closest sportsbook in terms of value is DraftKings at +245 odds, PointsBet is the no-brainer shop for this wager.
Zach Eflin is one of seven pitchers with eight-plus wins on the season and is getting affordable odds to record a win against the A's, considering they enter on a five-game winning streak. The A's made history when their winning streak reached four games as, per OptaSTATS, they were the first team with a sub-.200 winning percentage through 50 games to rattle off four consecutive road wins. However, going home and playing in an empty stadium may be the worst thing for their current momentum.
Of all players with eight or more wins, Eflin has done it in the fewest amount of starts (11), has the lowest WHIP (0.96), and by far the best K:BB ratio (7.33:1). Six of Eflin's 11 starts have been quality starts, so there is not much to worry about from a length perspective. This is only a three-star play, as he did allow a season-high nine hits in his first start against Oakland this season, but he has lowered his OBA from .273 to .223 since t hen.
With the Rays opening at -250 odds to win the game outright, we are hoping to get Eflin's odds to earn the victory anywhere from -115 to -140 when they become available.
Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller started on fire with five consecutive quality starts, and he allowed two or fewer hits or zero earned runs in four of them. Since then, Miller has allowed 15 runs on 19 hits over his last seven innings, though the Miami Marlins offense is less potent than the New York Yankees or Texas Rangers lineups that have done the recent damage.
Miami ranks 17th or worse in OPS, ISO, and wRC+ in road games and 26th overall in runs scored away from home. The Marlins offense is heavily predicated on power production from Jorge Soler (19 home runs and 38 RBIs on the season), but he had just one extra-base hit and seven RBIs this month before Sunday's two-home run explosion.
This is a three-star play, as Miller ranks in the 97th percentile in walk percentage, and only one Marlins hitter other than Luis Arraez entering Sunday had a BABIP higher than .333 (min. 120 PA).
Caesars is one of the only other major sportsbooks offering this type of prop, but it has slightly worse -125 odds than what is offered at DraftKings.
Monday's MLB game picks
Zack Greinke leads all Kansas City Royals starters in WAR despite the team going 3-10 in his 13 starts and losing five straight. However, Greinke has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven, as the lack of team success when he toes the rubber has more to do with an offense that has managed nine total runs in the five consecutive losses with him on the mound.
We expect the offense to rebound today against Luke Weaver, who has pitched to a 4.48 ERA in four starts against teams that entered Sunday under .500. Weaver ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in hard-hit contact and barrels and the bottom third in whiff percentage.
Kansas City is 3-3 in its last six “coin-flip” games, where it had moneyline odds between +100 and -120. And while the team is 25 games under .500 against teams with a winning record, the Royals are a much more respectable 7-9 at home against teams with losing records. Cincinnati may win this series, but we will give the Royals the win in the opener with their best pitcher on the mound.
WynnBet and PointsBet are the only two sportsbooks where one can find Kansas City at lower than -120 odds.
MLB best bets made 6/12/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: $2,500 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Revie w
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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