UFC 289 Odds: Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for Every Fight (Saturday, June 10)

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 11 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 289 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 289 Odds

Saturday's opener is essentially lined as a pick'em, and I don't see actionable value on this fight from any perspective – side, total or prop.

Both fighters are 1-3 through four UFC bouts; Maria Oliveira's only win came over a common opponent (Gloria De Paula), who defeated Diana Belbita by a narrow 29-28 decision (judges were unanimous, but fan and media scorecards were split 50/50).

Both fighters prefer to strike, and I expect to see a high-pace, high-volume affair in which Belbita has the edge in power.

Ultimately, that should be enough to sway the judges in her favor over 15 minutes. Still, that's not an outcome that I am interested in betting at market prices.

• Pass

On short notice, Stephen Erceg is making his UFC debut and had to fly from Australia to Toronto to make weight for this bout.

“Astroboy” is tall (three-inch height advantage) and lean for the 125-pound division. He's a good grappler – with six submission victories in 10 fights – but he is taking a significant step up in competition here against Dvorak, a legitimate top-10 to top-20 flyweight in the world.

Although Dvorak lost his last fight to Manel Kape (via unanimous decision), his decision loss to Matheus Nicolau could have gone either way (media and fan scorecards were split). He is extremely well-rounded, and I would expect him to survive Erceg's tricky grappling in the opening frame before the short-notice debutant eventually tires and fades.

Dvorak to win in Round 2 (+800) or Round 3 (+1100) are interesting pokes as a result, or you can bet the favorite live after Round 1 if his price drops, but it's not something I'm necessarily looking to target. Dvorak can undoubtedly find the finish in the opening frame, and I wouldn't be shocked, and the re's no value in his winning method props compared to my projected lines.

Erceg seems like a tough kid, and he's never been finished. Even though he's taking a step up in class, I could see him surviving to a decision in the weight class with the lowest finish rate in MMA.

• Pass

Blake Bilder thrives by putting a pace on opponents, using his energy, feints, footwork and movement to overwhelm his opposition – both physically and mentally.

However, Bilder can get a bit reckless in pursuing his aggressive, taxing game plan. He's very open to damage defensively – with a lack of head movement in the pocket – and a potent striker like Kyle Nelson can find the target and knock him down or out.

A knockout is likely the best path to victory for Nelson, the lesser grappler with significantly worse cardio.

Nelson is tough, and Bilder isn't some big-time finisher, but I could see the American securing an attritional-based stoppage down the stretch if he can implement his game plan.

When both men are fresh, Nelson might have opportunities to land a big shot and put his opponent down. If that happens, I'll look to live bet Bilder after Round 1'as Nelson tires and moves away from his lik eliest win condition.

From a pre-fight perspective, I would consider betting Bilder to win in Round 2 (+575) or Round 3 (+950). However, there's not enough meat on the bone to bet on either of those selections. And I could say the same about a potential same game parlay (SGP) with Bilder and the over 1.5 rounds (+120). I would rather play the round prop at that point, even though the SGP includes his decision equity.

I see an edge on Bilder by submission (projected +187, listed +225 at BetRivers) if you need action on this fight, but that's nothing more than a round-robin piece for me.

Look for a live angle on Bilder, or pass on this prelim.

• Blake Bilder live after Round 1

Aiemann Zahabi is the brother of legendary trainer Firas Zahabi, the head coach for welterweight GOAT Georges St-Pierre.

He is a technical but low-volume striker (6.9 strike attempts per minute) with good grappling skills but subpar offensive wrestling (16% takedown accuracy).

Aori Qileng is much more enthusiastic – averaging more than 12 strike attempts per minute, but he encourages more than 14 from his opponents – and has absorbed more than he has landed.

Zahabi is the more measured and composed fighter, but his opponent's pace may force a finish on either side.

In a firefight, I would give Qileng the durability edge; but other than Qileng by knockout (projected +373), I don't see an edge in this fight.

I'll consider that prop as a round-robin piece; otherwise, this is a spot to pass.

• Pass

Jasmine Jasudavicius is my favorite moneyline wager for UFC 289. The Canadian will have the home crowd in a fight lined as high as -345 (77.5%) to reach a decision.

Miranda Maverick has a technical striking edge, but Jasudavicius can make up for that with her physical advantages: four inches of height and three inches of reach.

I'm also uncertain that Maverick is the better wrestler in this fight, which is the assumption based on the odds. She may have difficulty wrestling a taller opponent, but Maverick also surrenders takedowns of her own (44% takedown defense) and often has difficulty getting off her back after takedowns.

If Jasudavicuus can keep the striking relatively competitive by putting Maverick at the end of her jab, land a takedown in one or two rounds, get some top time, and go the full 15 minutes, we likely have a coinflip decision on our hands at wor st – where Jadudavicus received unanimous support from the crowd. And that seems like a highly plausible outcome.

Bet Jasudavicus on the moneyline down to +240 (projected +227) and consider playing her to win by decision (projected +330, listed +325) or even by split decision for small stakes in the winning-method market.

• Jasmine Jasudavicius (+250, 0.5u) at Caesars

Nassourdine Imavov and Chris Curtis have seen 30 of their 56 combined MMA fights (53.5%) end by finish. And on average, UFC middleweight fights end by knockout or submission more than 60% of the time.

Still, I project Saturday's featured prelim to reach a decision around 62% of the time (-160 implied odds). You can bet the distance prop up to -150.

Curtis has never attempted a takedown – nor been takedown down in the UFC – and while Imavov has the grappling upside, I mostly expect a low- to moderate-tempo kickboxing match between these two ranked middleweights.

Although Curtis – the shorter man – has a one-inch reach advantage, Imavov will look to play the outside game with his leg kicks and attempt to time Curtis' forward movement to land punches. Curtis thrives in the pocket, where he shows a strong high guard and works body/head combinations, but Imavov isn't the type of fighter who will stand in front of him and oblige his game.

Curtis should see a similar matchup to what he faced in Jack Hermasson, who frustrated Curtis from the outside and used movement and footwork to keep Curtis chasing him. I expect to see some clinch battles between Curtis and Imavov as Imavov potentially looks for level changes. But I expect the Frenchman to be all the way in – attempting takedowns – or all the way out – hammering leg kicks. And if Curtis presses forward, he needs to look to stay safe, escape and re-engage from a distance.

Aside from a boxing edge, Curtis, a former welterweight, may have the cardio advantage too. Imavov has slowed in other three-round fights, and with the way Curtis consistently rips the body, I could see him dropping the first round on optics before taking over late against a tiring opponent.

As a result, look to live bet Curtis after round 1 – wh en his price would presumably peak – in addition to the over or goes-the-distance prop.

Conversely, Imavov to win by decision (projected +147, listed +180) isn't the worst look in the winning method market. Still, I expect any decision to be close and competitive, and I'd instead grab a juicier plus money ticket in the live market on the fighter more likely to carry his energy late.

• Chris Curtis vs. Nassourdine Imavov, fight goes to decision (-128, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Chris Curtis live after Round 1

Saturday's main-card opener is closely lined, and judges may have to weigh Eryk Anders' power advantage against Marc-Andre Barriault's strike volume.

The Canadian Barriault averages 12.5 strike attempts per minute compared to 7.2 for Anders, and he also has a positive strike differential (+0.72 strikes landed minus absorbed per minute). Anders (-0.83) allows his opponents to both land more strikes and attempt more strikes (8.44 per minute).

This fight should be close and competitive throughout. Anders likely possesses most of the grappling upside whether by landing takedowns or controlling Barriault up against the cage.

However, Barriault has better cardio – and the home crowd in his corner, so even if he loses the first round by getting knocked down or otherwise – I think he can rally over the final 10 minutes to secure a decision.

Anders continues to fight hard even when he's tired. Still, Barriault should provide better optics for the judges, who are likelier to score Barriault's range volume – in his home country – over Anders' potential clinch control and short-range shots.

Bet Barriault live after Round 1 if he flips from a favorite to an underdog.

From a pre-fight perspective, however, I don't see any way to recommend an actionable betting angle on this fight.

The fight's outcome could swing in the clinch; if Barriault can land equal or better offense from those positions, I think he will take a decision.

• Marc-Andre Barriault live after Round 1

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's exciting main card bout between Dan Ige and Nate Landwehr, make sure to check out the full fight preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Billy and I have a similar read and betting approach on this fight, but I'm also betting the fight to end inside the distance (listed -135, projected -169), given the expected pace.

Both fighters have excellent cardio, but I would give a slight edge to Landwehr, a former track athlete, in the stamina department. However, Ige, who has never been finished, is significantly more durable. Landwehr gets dropped or wobbled in nearly all of his fights. Still, the Clarkstown, Tennessee native is as tough as they come, showing unbelievable recoverability to rally back into fights.

Ige has the power advantage, knocking opponents like Gavin Tucker stiff, while Landwehr overwhelms his opponents with pace and volume for attritional-based stoppages. And both fighters have an underrated submission game.

???? Dan Ige (@Dynamitedan808) with a quick night at the office, knocking out ???? Gavin Tucker in under 30 seconds. #UFCVegas21

pic.twitter.com/ePXFGKaT4K

– MMA Empire (@mmaempirecanada) March 14, 2021

  
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