If you've been on Twitter during the past few days, you've probably seen the name Elly De La Cruz at least once. For some baseball fans and bettors, it's a name they're all too familiar with. For others, though, there's likely some confusion as to what all the excitement is about. Read on for our look at Elly De La Cruz based on the best MLB odds.
Despite being only the No. 4 prospect on MLB Pipeline's top 100, Cincinnati Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz's first game on Tuesday was perhaps the most highly-anticipated rookie debut since Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s in 2019. De La Cruz responded with a 1-for-3 day, with the hit being a decent little 112-mph double.
For an encore, De La Cruz destroyed a 115-mph, 458-foot home run in his second MLB game. He also cruised around the bases for a triple before showing off his blazing speed once again in hi s third professional game by stealing second base.
After three games, De La Cruz is slashing .364/.462/.909 with a home run and a stolen base. So, where do we go from here?
Here's our look at how to bet on Elly De La Cruz during the 2023 MLB season (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Elly De La Cruz Rookie of the Year odds
National League Rookie of the Year odds as of Friday, June 9 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | +300 ?? | +500 | +350 | +425 | +500 |
Elly De La Cruz Rookie of the Year odds analysis
The most obvious market to look at when betting on De La Cruz is the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year award. You can find a more comprehensive look at all the players involved in our 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds, but let's see where the Reds freshman stands in the race.
On Monday, one day before his call-up, De La Cruz was as long as +2000 to win NL Rookie of the Year, and the shortest offering was +1400. When news broke of his debut on Tuesday, the best sports betting apps moved their odds accordingly, and only FanDuel had a price longer than +1000. Following his first two games, De La Cruz was as short as +350 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. The former is now offering the shortest price at +300.
So, where do we go from here?
My advice would be to wait. These prices are likely to be the shortest De La Cruz will trade at for the rest of the season, primarily due to the aforementioned hype surrounding his debut and his impressive performances during his first three games. However, this is still Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll's award to lose. Carroll isn't just the NL Rookie of the Year front-runner, but he's also a bona fide MVP candidate.
It may be only a matter of weeks – or even days – before De La Cruz is trading closer to +750 or longer. With his raw talent, I would be somewhat interested in buying in at that price. If he reaches +1000 after a few cold games, sign me up.
Only a player who's able to match Carroll's combination of power and speed can hope to challenge him for this award, and De La Cruz really fits that criteria. We have to bake in the fact that he's starting at a 55-game disadvantage, as Carroll has been accruing stats while De La Cruz crushed souls in the minor leagues. However, if we're able to get a number in the +1000 range, we can justify gambling on the Reds' electric rookie.
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Elly De La Cruz prop markets
Outside of the Rookie of the Year futures market, there are other De La Cruz props that we can target throughout the 2023 campaign.
Across 263 total minor-league games, De La Cruz mashed 49 homers and stole 71 bases, so we know both the home runs and stolen bases daily markets are always in play, especially since his home games are in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. On Friday, DraftKings has Over 0.5 home runs at +475 and Over 0.5 stolen bases at +400. It offers Over 1.5 total bases at +120.
The other thing De La Cruz did a lot of in the minors was strike out. However, one can see that the best sportsbooks have already accounted for this, as De La Cruz is trading as heavy minus money to strike out at least once during Friday's game.
You're probably thinking that's all fine and dandy, but where's the edge?
Well, we have two key pieces of information to play off of. First, De La Cruz is a switch-hitter, and we can attack his props differently depending on who's pitching for the opposing team.
De La Cruz's on-base skills have been generally the same regardless of if he's hitting from the left or right side. Prior to his call-up this year, he was slashing .284/.402/.688 as a lefty and .339/.409/.593 as a righty. That last number – the slugg ing percentage – is what I want to focus on.
In both 2022 and the early stages of this season, De La Cruz showed significantly more pop from the left side of the batter's box. He hit 10 of his 13 home runs in the minors this season as a lefty, and 22 of his 27 long balls in 2022 came from that side, too. Therefore, it may be wise to fade his total bases props against southpaws until he shows an ability to constantly hit for extra bases against them.
The second key piece of information is his ballpark. Reds hitters' odds on Overs are generally shorter at home because the ballpark is so friendly to them. This is something we can try to exploit, as De La Cruz hits the ball so hard that it doesn't really matter where he plays.
If the best live betting sites begin pricing his hitting props to the Over at more favorable odds on the road (the Reds begin a road trip today, on Ju ne 9), bettors can attack those lines with the knowledge that De La Cruz doesn't need to be in a hitter-friendly park to fill up the box score. We're seeing that already, as De La Cruz is the aforementioned +475 to hit a home run on Friday, while he was trading at around +375 to hit a long ball during his first three home games.
De La Cruz is still only three games into his MLB career, so it's hard to know too much about where we go from here when looking to bet on him. However, between those pieces of information and what we pick up over the next few weeks, his diverse skill set should provide bettors with various avenues to go down when attacking his player props in July through to the end of the campaign.
Check out our MLB MVP odds.
What other markets does Elly De La Cruz affect?
The most obvious (though cynical) market to attac k with the emergence of De La Cruz is the Over on strikeout props for opposing pitchers. The reality is, despite being an exciting talent, we're talking about a player who struck out in roughly 30% of his plate appearances against minor-league pitching. So far, he's been punched out six times in his first 13 MLB plate appearances. As a team, the Reds are around the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout percentage, so we may be able to get some nice prices on strikeout Overs until the best sportsbooks adjust accordingly. (I say that despite betting on St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Jordan Montgomery's strikeout Under on Friday. Do as I say, not as I do.)
Secondly, the best sports betting sites will surely be paying closer attention to De La Cruz's prices, knowing people will be eager to bet on him. This is something we discussed in a recent Shohei Ohtani player props article. So, with all of the attention on De La Cru z, why not target his teammates who hit around him in the batting order?
De La Cruz has hit fourth during his first three games, with Spencer Steer hitting behind him and Jonathan India hitting third. We can look to their RBI or runs scored props for value, rather than pay the extra juice to bet on De La Cruz.
Similarly, I still really like both Steer and fellow Reds rookie Matt McLain in the NL Rookie of the Year market. Both are trading as significant long shots despite having very strong seasons thus far. With all of the hype surrounding De La Cruz, they've been all but ignored, but their stats will benefit from his arrival.
Finally, how 'bout them Reds? Cincy is only five games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead, but they're listed with the fifth-longest odds to win the division at most of the best sportsbooks. The division is awful – mind you, not as ba d as its AL counterpart – and the Reds could very well swoop in and steal it with all of their young talent. Head to DraftKings for the best price on the Reds to win the NL Central at +1900.
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