The Florida Panthers visit the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his thoughts and top picks for the series based on the NHL odds from our best live betting sites.
After combining to play 197 games this season, it all comes down to this best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final for Vegas and Florida.
The Panthers have pulled off three consecutive series upsets after sneaking into the playoffs as the eighth seed, while punters and prognosticators have been lining up to pick against top-seeded Golden Knights throughout the postseason.
Stanley Cup favorite Boston Bruins, bye bye.
Superstars Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, see you next year.
Then, Florida and Vegas scorched out to 3-0 leads in their respective Conference Final before punching their tickets to the final.
Sure, this is a matchup few expected or projected, but here we are.
And, here are four guarantees: A franchise, coach, and captain will win the Stanley Cup for the first time, and there will also be a first-time Conn Smythe Trophy winner.
Bettors and fans have lots to look forward to, and I wanted to share a quick look at the five-on-five statistics I lean on when handicapping a playoff series and offer a pair of picks for the Stanley Cup Final.
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Stanley Cup Final preview
| Corsi For percentage | Adjusted CF% | Goals for percentage | Expected goals for percentage | Adjusted xGF% | Team shooting percentage | Team save percentage | PDO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 48.2 | 49.0 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 51.7 | 9.0 | .923 | 1.013 |
| Entire postseason | 46.9 | 47.9 | 67.6 | 50.0 | 50.6 | 11.8 | .946 | 1.063 |
| Round 1 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 71.4 | 54.8 | 55.8 | 11.7 | .948 | 1.065 |
| Round 2 | 44.8 | 44.4 | 62.5 | 46.6 | 46.5 | 12.1 | .933 | 1.054 |
| Round 3 | 46.7 | 48.3 | 69.2 | 49.0 | 49.6 | 11.6 | .953 | 1.069 |
Lady luck continues to align with Vegas. But at some point, we have to take the five-on-five dominance at face value because the Golden Knights are talented, deep, and well-coached.
While maintaining the 1.063 postseason PDO is unlikely, the proof is in the pudding, and Vegas has room for statistical correction without crippling its outlook. Additionally, it's easy to overlook that the Golden Knights earned the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with multiple impact players missing significant time.
I give Vegas a 57.4% (-135) chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Check out our Stanley Cup odds.
| Corsi For percentage | Adjusted CF% | Goals for percentage | Expected goals for percentage | Adjusted xGF% | Team shooting percentage | Team save percentage | PDO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 54.3 | 54.7 | 54.6 | 53.7 | 53.9 | 8.5 | .918 | 1.003 |
| Entire postseason | 55.7 | 47.8 | 55.4 | 46.6 | 47.3 | 7.6 | .946 | 1.022 |
| Round 1 | 47.8 | 47.0 | 53.6 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 8.8 | .930 | 1.017 |
| Round 2 | 50.4 | 51.8 | 55.6 | 46.2 | 47.7 | 7.9 | .941 | 1.020 |
| Round 3 | 43.6 | 44.6 | 60.0 | 42.4 | 43.5 | 5.5 | .972 | 1.027 |
There's now a three-round trend of the Panthers having a much higher goals for percentage than expected goals for percentage. More importantly the gap has grown in each round of the playoffs. Additionally, the Florida team shooting percentage has dropped and team save percentage has climbed in consecutive rounds.
It all adds up to Bobrovsky being the Conn Smythe Trophy favorite, and reinforces what we already know. Brickwall Bobby is the No. 1 reason why the Panthers are in the Stanley Cup Final.
Here's the thing, though, do you trust him to continue stopping everything?
Bobrovsky posted a .905 save percentage across 185 regular-season games over four seasons with Florida, and he also had a .905 mark during Round 1 against Boston.
My series price for the Panthers is +135 (42.6%).
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Stanley Cup Final picks
Series winner: Golden Knights (-125 via DraftKings) ???
In addition to the five-on-five statistical edges, I also give an edge to Vegas on special teams. Not specifically that the Golden Knights are superior on the power play or penalty kill than the Panthers, but that Florida consistently spends more time shorthanded than Vegas.
The Golden Knights took the fewest minor penalties at five-on-five during the regular season and spent the fewest minutes per game shorthanded (3:47). Florida averaged 5:47 of shorthanded time per game during the regular season and 5:29 during the playoffs.
Vegas has spent an average of 4:22 of shorthanded time during the postseason, but that number is skewed by its 5:49 mark against the Edmonton Oilers in Round 2. Otherwise, t he Golden Knights have continued to be the gold standard of discipline.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -125 ?? | -130 | -130 | -130 | -135 ?? |
There isn't a huge disparity in the prices across our best live betting sites, but the outlier number available through DraftKings does present a positive expected value of 3% over the -135 odds via PointsBet and my price.
Series spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+175 via Caesars) ??
This is strictly a play based on the numbers and my series projections.
I have the Golden Knights priced at 40.4% (+148) to win this series before Game 7. As a result, we're gaining a significant edge with the +175 price through Caesars. It checks out as a positive expected value of 11% and an added $6.75 of profit on a $25 wager.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +160 | +152 | +155 | +175 ?? | +150 ?? |
Check out our Conn Smythe Trophy odds.
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