Since the inception of VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly in 2017, each fall I have presented my College Football Stability methodology to readers. I steadfastly believe in the strategy and the principles it’s founded on. To me, this is a winning strategy, and the more logic like this that you come to rely on in your own handicapping, the more successful you will be. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what makes a game a Stability Mismatch.
Being a numbers guy, I like to quantify the level of stability for each program. I figure the higher level of stability, the better the chances of success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally, putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot stability mismatches. Now, the point spread considered, the feeling is that oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the instability factors.
Over the last decade-plus, I have implemented an early-season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings and fading those in the most unstable situations. In these 11 years, I have never experienced a losing record by playing the games on the lists for the first four weeks of the season. It’s never been wildly successful, but typically I’ll win about 60% of the games I play on this methodology each season. Of course, these numbers can be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies as well, but as a stand-alone strategy, the success level is tough to beat.
Just below is my list of the top college football Stability Mismatches for Week 1. A Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which I will consider a play for this thought process. For the rest of the first month of the season, I will continue to offer the weekly mismatches for you to use. I typically believe that after two to three games for each team, oddsmakers are able to catch up. However, you should feel comfortable employing this strategy in the first few weeks while the dust settles.