The Vegas Golden Knights host the Dallas Stars in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final on Friday, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his top pick based on the latest NHL odds from our best live betting sites.
It seems fitting that lady luck has helped the Golden Knights advance to the Western Conference Final. Vegas received elite goaltending from third-stringer Adin Hill in Round 2, as the Golden Knights eliminated the Edmonton Oilers in six games.
Make no mistake, Dallas will be ready for the tough test. And while Vegas benefited from some puck luck against the Oil, Stars starter Jake Oettinger has statistical correction ahead of his .877 save percentage against the Seattle Kraken in Round 2.
This series is going to be incredibly close and I'd be shocked if it didn't go at least six games. The difference might just be settled in goal.
It's going to be a doozy.
Here is our best Stars vs. Golden Knights prediction for Friday (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Stars vs. Golden Knights pick
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At first glance, it would be easy to call for screaming statistical correction ahead of Marchessault's skyrocketing shot volume in Round 2 against the Edmonton Oilers.
There were two huge changes that paved the way for the winger's uptick in shots and attempts, though.
First, winger Ivan Barbashev replaced Michael Amadio on the Vegas top line alongside center Jack Eichel and Marchessault ahead of Game 5 in the Round 1 series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Second, Vegas began to commit to a loaded No. 1 power-play unit featuring winger Mark Stone, Eichel, and Marchessault in Game 3 against the Oil in Round 2. It's resulted in Marchessault returning to his role as the go-to shooter with the man advantage.
So, while there's no chance Marchessault's behemoth 19.94 shots and 26.98 attempts per 60 minutes from Round 2 carry over into the Western Conference Final, there is still oodles of room for both the pending negative regression and this Over to cash in Friday.
Stars vs. Golden Knights best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marchessault Over 3.5 shots | Marchessault Over 3.5 shots | Marchessault Over 3.5 shots | Marchessault Over 3.5 shots | Marchessault Over 3.5 shots |
| -110 | -110 | -111 | -117 | -120 ?? |
There isn't a huge edge to be found in the odds across three of our five best sports betting apps. You'll just want to avoid the extra vig Caesars (-117) and PointsBet (-120) are charging. For comparison, the difference between the -110 and -120 prices is a positive expected value of 4%.
Stars vs. Golden Knights odds
Stars vs. Golden Knights odds analysis
| Side | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stars moneyline | +105 | +108 ?? | +105 | +105 | +105 |
| Golden Knights moneyline | -125 | -130 ?? | -125 | -125 | -125 |
| Stars +1.5 | -250 | -250 | -250 | -250 | -260 ?? |
| Golden Knights -1.5 | +210 | +198 ?? | +200 | +205 | +210 |
Backing the Dallas moneyline through FanDuel presents a slight edge. Otherwise, it's all about avoiding the worst odds across our best sports betting apps.
| Total | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 5.5 (-110) ?? | 5.5 (-106) | 5.5 (-105) | 5.5 (-105) | 5.5 (-105) |
| Under | 5.5 (-110) ?? | 5.5 (-114) | 5.5 (-115) | 5.5 (-115) | 5.5 (-115) |
Again, there's only one outlier total to target with DraftKings attaching the lowest vig to the Under 5.5.
Stars vs. Golden Knights game info
- Date: Friday, May 19, 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Stars vs. Golden Knights pick made 5/18/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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- FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Rea d our BetMGM Review
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