The Dallas Stars visit the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of the NHL Western Conference Final on Friday, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his top picks for the series based on the best NHL odds from our highest-rated NHL betting sites.
This is the fourth trip to the Western Conference Final in six seasons for Vegas, but the Golden Knights will have their hands full with the Stars.
Dallas topped Vegas in all four regular-season meetings, and Stars head coach Pete DeBoer is set to face his former team after spending 160 games over three seasons behind the Vegas bench.
I wanted to share a quick look at the five-on-five statistics I value when breaking down a playoff series and also offer my thoughts and picks for the Western Conference Final between the Golden Knights and Stars.
Check out our Stanley Cup odds.
Golden Knights vs. Stars Western Conference Final Preview
| Corsi For percentage | Adjusted CF% | Goals for percentage | Expected goals for percentage | Adjusted xGF% | Team shooting percentage | Team save percentage | PDO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 48.2 | 49.0 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 51.7 | 9.0 | .923 | 1.013 |
| Entire postseason | 47.0 | 47.6 | 66.7 | 50.6 | 51.1 | 11.9 | .940 | 1.059 |
| Round 1 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 71.4 | 54.8 | 55.8 | 11.7 | .948 | 1.065 |
| Round 2 | 44.8 | 44.4 | 62.5 | 46.6 | 46.5 | 12.1 | .933 | 1.054 |
It's almost fitting that Vegas' regular-season luck has carried over into the postseason, but there's also definitely a breaking point. A 1.059 PDO is unsustainable, and in particular, negative regression looms over the .940 team save percentage at five-on-five.
Additionally, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Golden Knights fail to maintain their 11.9 five-on-five shooting percentage, either. Their five-on-five score and venue adjusted numbers from Round 2 against the Edmonton Oilers are an eyesore, too.
| Corsi For percentage | Adjusted CF% | Goals for percentage | Expected goals for percentage | Adjusted xGF% | Team shooting percentage | Team save percentage | PDO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 51.7 | 52.7 | 54.7 | 52.1 | 52.8 | 8.8 | .924 | 1.012 |
| Entire postseason | 50.9 | 51.9 | 50.9 | 55.5 | 56.2 | 10.3 | .901 | 1.004 |
| Round 1 | 50.8 | 52.9 | 50.0 | 50.6 | 52.3 | 7.0 | .930 | 1.000 |
| Round 2 | 51.0 | 51.0 | 51.3 | 59.3 | 59.2 | 13.0 | .877 | 1.007 |
Give Big D credit. The Stars are an easy team to handicap because they have played similarly throughout the postseason, and their five-on-five numbers hardly fluctuate when adjusted for score and venue.
The Dallas offense has been streaky, but I am anticipating the team shooting percentage to level off between its regular and postseason marks.
Most important to this series, though, is Dallas starter Jake Oettinger returning to form. He sunk to an .877 overall save percentage against the Seattle Kraken in Round 2, and that won't cut it at this stage of the game. I expect him to be better against Vegas.
Golden Knights vs. Stars Western Conference Final Picks
Series winner: Stars (+115 DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars) ???
I handicapped this series as a near pick'em and have Dallas' chances to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals priced at -103 (50.75%). As a result, there's a positive expected value of 9% based on my numbers.
This is a bet that Vegas won't maintain its lofty five-on-five shooting and save percentages across an entire series against Dallas. Additionally, as noted, I am expecting Oettinger to be better in net for the Stars than he was in Round 2.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +115 | +110 | +115 | +115 | +105 ?? |
Most goals in series: Jason Robertson (+650 via DraftKings, BetMGM) ??
There's definitely a chance Robertson is playing somewhat hurt at this stage of the playoffs. While it would explain his statistical free fall in the goals column, he's leading all Dallas forwards in ice time per game and still posting solid underlying metrics.
Just peek at his regular-season and postseason numbers:
| Goals per 60 | Individual high-danger chances per 60 | Individual expected goals per 60 | Shots per 60 | Shooting percentage | On-ice expected goals for per 60 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 1.79 | 4.16 | 1.28 | 12.16 | 14.7 | 4.9 |
| Postseason | 0.49 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 9.09 | 5.41 | 4.41 |
A downtick in per-60-minutes statistics during the playoffs isn't a huge surprise, and the improved numbers for linemates Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski have definitely had an impact.
Still, Robertson hasn't even found the back of the net at five-on-five through 13 games after ranking 11th in 5v5 goals per 60 during the regular season.
There's also a decent edge provided by shopping across our best sports betting apps and backing the +650 odds. We're landing a positive expected value of 16.7% and an extra $30 of profit on a $20 bet compared to the +500 price through FanDuel.
The goals are coming.
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