Eleven of the 12 games on Monday's Major League Baseball schedule are series openers, as we have a loaded schedule to start the week. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
Many top teams have a chance to prove they are legitimate contenders early in the week, as five games on the slate are between teams with winning records. Elsewhere, the St. Louis Cardinals aim to recover from a disappointing start and make up ground on the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New York Mets (-155) vs. Washington Nationals (+135)
- Los Angeles Angels (-130) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+110)
- New York Yankees (OFF) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Seattle Mariners (-120) vs. Boston Red Sox (+100)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-115) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-105)
- Atlanta Braves (OFF) vs. Texas Rangers
- Chicago Cubs (+155) vs. Houston Astros (-180)
- Cincinnati Reds (-125) vs. Colorado Rockies (+105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-205) vs. Oakland Athletics (+175)
- Kansas City Royals (+175) vs. San Diego Padres (-205)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. San Francisco Giants (-115)
- Minnesota Twins (+100) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-120)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Alek Manoah Under hits allowed (OFF) vs. Yankees ????
- Player prop: Freddy Peralta Under 17.5 outs recorded (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ???
- Player prop: Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+330 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ???
- Total: Braves- Rangers Over (OFF) ????
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Monday's MLB prop picks
The New York Yankees offense has come to life over the last week, scoring seven-plus runs in six of the previous eight games. However, all but one of those games were played at home, and the Yankees are built for the ballpark they play in. This is a four-star play, as they are about to run into a buzzsaw of a pitcher they have not been able to solve in his young career.
Toronto Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah has held current Yankees to a .167/.246/.247 slash line in 78 combined at-bats. He has recorded 23 of those outs via strikeout, and just four of the 13 hits against him have gone for extra bases. Manoah's 1.66 WHIP is due lar gely to a lack of control, with four-plus walks issued in five of his last seven starts. But in an April 22 road start against the Yankees, he held them to two hits in seven scoreless innings. We expect a similarly strong outing Monday.
We would hope to get this number at 5.5, but would play it down to 4.5, especially if given plus-money odds.
Busch Stadium has been a house of horrors for Brewers righty Freddy Peralta. He is 0-1 with a 6.59 ERA in four appearances (two starts) there, and current Cardinals hitters are slashing .300/.389/.592 in 90 career at-bats against him.
The long ball has especially victimized Peralta in those appearances, as the Cardinals have taken him deep seven times. Five of those were from sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who are a combined 13-for-33 (.394) against him, and each has OPSs of 1.303. If Peralta has trouble managing the heart of the order again, St. Louis is likely to hang some crooked numbers, leading to a short outing.
Peralta needed 102 pitches to complete six innings against the Cardinals in his second start of the season despite allowing just four hits. Thus, we do not expect him to last six innings for the fourth consecutive start in this start, especially since the Brewers have lost each of his last five road starts.
While DraftKings offers plus-money odds for this prop, Caesars is at -104 for the same number.
New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso leads the majors with 13 home runs despite a subpar .232 batting average. However, that all-or-nothing approach has paid huge dividends in the past against Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin, against whom he is 13-for-37, with five of those hits leaving the yard. Alonso has not homered in five games, but the fact that his longest homerless drought this season is seven games suggests he is due to break this power drought.
For all of Alonso's struggles this season, he is still in the 94th percentile or better in barrels and xSLG, making this a three-star play against a pitcher in the 13th percentile in xSLG and the bottom quarter of the league in hard-hit percentage allowed.
DraftKings provides by far the best value for this prop, as FanDuel and Caesars are at +255 and +300, respectively.
Monday's MLB game picks
The Atlanta Braves endured a surprising three-game sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, considering they are still nine games over .500 on the road. The offense struggled with just seven runs scored over the three-game series, but we expect a bounceback against a starting pitcher due for regression.
The Texas Rangers have not officially named righty Dane Dunning the starter for Monday, but if he does get the call, he has been fortunate to pitch to a 1.72 ERA considering his xERA is 3.48. In addition, Dunning has finished each of the previous two seasons with an ERA of at least 4.46 and WHIP of 1.435, so we expect his numbers to revert to those averages relatively soon.
Atlanta is slugging .437 against right-handed pitching since last season, the second-best mark in the majors, per Inside Edge. And Atlanta's Charlie Morton's xERA is more than 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA (4.79 compared to 3.32), so we expect plenty of runs in a hitter's ballpark.
If we get the Dunning-Morton matchup we expect, we would play this number up to 9.5 when available, but an Over/Under of 9 is more likely given both pitchers' respectable ERAs.
MLB best bets made 5/15/2023 at 6:18 a.m. ET.
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