Mets-Nationals prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, May 12

The New York Mets (18-20) will hit the road for a four-game set with the Washington Nationals (16-21) starting on Friday, May 12. The matchup will get started at 7:05 p.m. ET from Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Mets lost two of three against the Cincinnati Reds this week, while the Nationals won their series against the San Francisco Giants.

The Mets are -135 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Nationals +115 underdogs with the over/under set at 8.5. My last 24 moneyline and over/under bets went 15-8-1, so let's make some picks.

Mets

Day to day: SP Max Scherzer (neck)

Out: RP Jimmy Yacabonis (quadriceps), C Tomas Nido (eye), RP Brooks Raley (elbow), RP Edwin Uceta (ankle), SP Carlos Carrasco (elbow), OF Tim Locastro (back), C Omar Narvaez (calf), SP Elieser Hernandez (shoulder), RP Sam Coonrod (lat), RP Edwin Diaz (knee), RP Bryce Montes de Oca (elbow), SP Jose Quintana (ribs), RP Stephen Ridings (shoulder)

Nationals

Day to day: 3B Jeimer Candelario (ankle)

Out: OF Victor Robles (back), SP Chad Kuhl (foot), OF Corey Dickerson (calf), RP Victor Arano (shoulder), SP Cade Cavalli (elbow), C Israel Pineda (hand), RP Tanner Rainey (elbow), SP Stephen Strasburg (shoulder)

Tylor Megill vs. McKenzie Gore

Megill (3-2, 4.33 ERA) is about on par with what he did in his first two MLB seasons heading into his eighth start of the 2023 season. In his last time out, he surrendered three runs on six hits and three walks with four strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a 5-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies.

Gore (3-2, 3.65 ERA) is off to a decent start to his first year with the Nationals through seven starts. He struck out at least nine hitters in two of his last three outings and allowed two runs over six innings in last weekend's 8-7 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Gore has been fortunate in runs allowed over his last couple starts, allowing a combined 15 hits over 10 innings in that span. Additionally, the Nationals also scored at least five runs over four of their last five matchups.

Pick: Over 8.5

This is a fairly even pitching matchup, so let's go with a Mets team that has a slightly better offense over the course of this season. New York's lineup ranks higher in runs per game, slugging percentage and on-base percentage, and that'll be the difference on Friday night.

Pick: Mets

  
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