A small six-game Major League Baseball slate includes three series openers, all between division rivals. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.
The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet for the fourth time in seven days, as the former looks to continue its climb out of last place in the American League East.
That's one of two games on the schedule between teams with winning records, as the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins wrap up their three-game series.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB schedule and odds
- New York Mets (-195) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+165)
- San Diego Padres (-120) vs. Minnesota Twins (+100)
- Chicago White Sox (-105) vs. Kansas City Royals (-115)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-125) vs. New York Yankees (+105)
- San Francisco Giants (-135) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+115)
- Texas Rangers (Off) vs. Oakland Athletics
Thursday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Brady Singer Over outs recorded (Off) vs. White Sox ???
- Player prop: Yu Darvish not to record a win (-185 via DraftKings) vs. Twins ????
- Player prop: Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBI (+135 via DraftKings) vs. Giants ????
- Total: Rays-Yankees Over 8.5 runs (-110 via BetMGM) ????
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Thursday's MLB prop picks
The Chicago White Sox have had difficulty generating offense against Brady Singer recently. Current White Sox hitters are slashing .253/.266/.318 in 79 combined at-bats against Singer, but the most eye-popping number is that just three of their 20 hits went for extra bases. Singer has also issued just one walk in that span, so quick innings with limited rallies are likely in store for the Kansas City Royals righty.
White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson is responsible for seven of the 20 hits against Singer (the rest of Chicago's hitters are 13-for-66 against him). Still, he is just 5-for-32 since returning from the IL, and we do not expect him to be the normal sparkplug that he is just yet for this lineup. Singer has recorded 18 outs just once in his last five starts, but we expect a strong performance here, especially since his career winning percentage is .543 and ERA is 3.96 in day starts compared to .381 and 4.90 at night.
We are looking to play this number around 17.5 considering six innings seems like the most reasonable number for Singer to complete, but we would not be opposed to playing this at Over 18.5 at plus-money odds.
The San Diego Padres are curiously low favorites (-120 ML odds) against the Minnesota Twins with their ace on the mound, especially since the opposing pitcher, Bailey Ober, was not in the rotation to start the season. That suggests that oddsmakers believe Darvish will not have his best stuff, despite allowing one earned run in four of six starts.
Darvish's two road starts this season have been worrisome for different reasons. Against the New York Mets, he was tagged for five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings and issued five walks in his next road start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Twins rank 28th in wOBA and wRC+ over the last seven days, but we expect an offensive bounce-back from a lineup that ranks fourth in the American League in BABIP in home games.
Caesars has even more confidence in Darvish not earning the win as it listed his “no” odds to win at -193.
Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker's 28 RBIs are tied for 10th in the majors and are nine more than anyone else in the lineup. Walker has three RBIs in the last six games but still has nine in May to go with an OPS of 1.242. He now faces San Francisco Giants righty Alex Cobb, against whom he is 6-for-14 with a 1.244 OPS. This is a confident four-star play, as Walker is slugging .520 in two-strike counts this season (fourth-best in the majors), per Inside Edge.
DraftKings provides the best value for bettors as FanDuel and Caesars have +120 and +127 odds, respectively, for Walker to drive in a run.
Thursday's MLB game picks
We are not making this wager as an overreaction to the New York Yankees' offensive outburst in a three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics. The A's 7.31 ERA is the worst in the majors by more than 1.5 runs, so it was not surprising to see New York break out for 28 runs on a combined 29-for-98 hitting with nine home runs. However, we expect that offensive success to carry over into Thursday's series opener, especially with Aaron Judge healthy (he missed the entire series against the Tampa Bay Rays last week) and Harrison Bader getting more comfortable with 28 at-bats under his belt.
On the other side, the Rays took the second-fewest number of games to reach the 75-home run mark (37, second only to the 2000 St. Louis Cardinals' 36). Thus, this is a four-star play even though Thursday's two starting pitchers, Domingo German and Draw Rasmussen, were involved in a low-scoring 3-2 Yankees win in Tampa last Saturday.
BetMGM is one of a handful of sportsbooks that offers an O/U of 8.5 with standard -110 juice, so there is not much variability in this number.
MLB best bets made 5/11/2023 at 6:22 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)