MLB schedule today has 15 games
A full 15-game slate starts bright and early with lunchtime action in Pittsburgh, New York City, Milwaukee, and Cleveland, not to mention other afternoon tilts in Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, and Anaheim. I’ll spare you the long intro and get right down to business. (Tracking sheet)
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Here are some thoughts on the May 10 card (odds from DraftKings):
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 8.5)
This line looked a bit low for the Pirates today with Rich Hill on the bump against Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies. Hill had his first rocky (no pun intended) outing in a while last time out, as he allowed four runs on eight hits to the Blue Jays over 5.1 innings of work. Hill simply didn’t locate well with a 55.6% Hard Hit%. Prior to that, his worst start from a HH% standpoint was 42.1% when he got rocked by the White Sox on April 7.
The Rockies remain a really bad offensive team, so there is definitely a path for Hill to get back on track. Overall, Colorado is 25th in wOBA against LHP and 29th in wRC+, as Coors Field skews the curve in a big way for park-adjusted metrics. Colorado is also 28th in road wOBA against lefties and 28th in wRC+. If Hill struggles here, that will be a bad sign going forward.
The Pirates have had problems scoring runs early in games lately, even against Rockies pitchers in this series. They’ve scored one run in the first five innings of the last six games. This will be Senzatela’s second start back after returning from a torn ACL. He allowed one run on three hits over five innings against the Mets in that outing.
No play here with the early start, but I’ll be keeping tabs on Hill given a favorable matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers
In this battle of teams that are bad against lefties, one lefty is way better than the other one. That better lefty is Clayton Kershaw, who leads the Dodgers into battle against Wade Miley. The Dodgers are 24th in wOBA at .304, while the Brewers are dead last at .266 and also rank last in wRC+ at 64. The Dodgers have a 90 wRC+, so maybe they haven’t been quite as bad as wOBA suggests.
The Dodgers have an 11.1% BB% in this split, but also have a 26.8% K%. The thing about facing Miley is that you don’t have to worry as much about the strikeouts. He’s only struck out 21 of the 140 batters that he has faced. Miley has a 2.31 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 5.00 xFIP, so there are some regression signs in the profile. He’s also got a 4.00 xERA, so that’s another thing to key in on.
I will say that I am a bit concerned about the Dodgers, as they flew from San Diego to Milwaukee late Sunday night and arrived at 3 a.m. local time for Monday’s game. They won on Tuesday, but now have an early wake-up call for the day game. It isn’t an ideal spot for them, even if it looks like they have a good chance at getting to Miley based on the regression signs in his profile. Miley won’t keep running an 82.4% LOB% with a 15% K%.
Was the last start for Kershaw a blip on the radar or something to be more worried about? After walking five batters in his first six starts, Kershaw walked five against the Padres in just 4.2 innings. He allowed four homers in his first six starts, but two in that start. To be honest, he was fortunate to only allow four runs on eight hits. Nothing looked off with his velocity or his spin rates, so it was probably just a bad start, but for a guy in his late 30s with a barking back, you never know.
Another early start with limited lead time, but I do think it’s worth watching to see if Kershaw bounces back and if Miley’s regression signs keep building.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-140, 8.5)
Edward Cabrera and Merrill Kelly face off in the rubber match of this series. Unfortunately, Brandon Pfaadt was not much better in his second start last night, as Jorge Soler hit a ball that is still orbiting Earth and he gave up some insurance runs late in his outing. That leaves the Diamondbacks hoping for a better start out of Kelly, who is coming off of seven dominant innings against the Nationals with 10 strikeouts.
Kelly walked 17 batters over his first five starts, but has only walked two guys in his last two starts with 15 strikeouts. He’s got a 2.75 ERA with a 3.88 FIP on the season, with FIP punishing him a little for the free passes. The Marlins only have a 6.7% BB% against righties, so I can’t imagine it will be that big of a deal for him in this start.
Miami’s outburst against Pfaadt was definitely an outlier, as they now rank 27th in wOBA against righties and 26th in wRC+. This just isn’t a good offensive team against righties and Kelly is a polished product having another fine season under the tutelage of pitching coach Brent Strom.
Cabrera’s BB troubles are way more pronounced with 26 of them in just 32 innings of work, but the Diamondbacks are a very aggressive, contact-oriented offense that has an 8.3% BB% against righties. That is quite a bit higher than their mark against lefties. Arizona is also up to fifth in wOBA against righties at .342. They're fourth in SLG in that split, so they’ve been really potent and productive. They’re also fourth in home wOBA against righties at .361.
I do like Kelly over Cabrera, but the Marlins are a team finding ways to overperform and I’m not excited to lay -140 or so against them for the full game or 1st 5.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants (-165, 8.5)
Josiah Gray and the Nationals battle Sean Manaea and the Giants with some getaway day action at Oracle Park. Gray has been a really pleasant surprise this season for the Nats, as he has a 3.03 ERA with a 4.41 FIP in his 38.2 innings of work. He gave up three homers to the Braves in his first start back on April 1, but has only allowed two homers in his last six starts. That’s an important metric against a Giants lineup that hits righties well and hits for power in that split.
Gray’s walk rate is a little elevated, which FIP is punishing him for, as he’s walked 15 in 38.2 innings against 37 strikeouts. He has an 87.2% LOB%, which is doing some lifting on that 3.03 ERA, but it’s also worth mentioning that he has just a 30.6% Hard Hit%. He also only has a 6.3% Barrel%, which is really, really impressive when you consider that he’s allowed a good bit of fly ball contact.
Manaea has not been impressive this season. In fact, this has already been a pretty tough year for him. He has a 7.33 ERA with a 6.41 FIP in his 23.1 innings of work. We have to be fair and draw a line through his Mexico City start back on April 29, but he came back to the States to face a terrible Milwaukee team against lefties and allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits over five innings.
Manaea has allowed a 46.2% Hard Hit% on the season and a 16.9% Barrel%. He’s allowed an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph, which is over five mph harder than Gray. The Nationals are 13th in wOBA against lefties and have a 104 wRC+ in that split. They are way better against lefties than righties, but have been dropping down the board a bit after a blistering start. They also have the lowest K% against southpaws at just 15.2%. Manaea has struck out 27 batters in 108 PA. In the 81 PA not ending in a strikeout, he’s given up 25 hits and 13 walks with three additional batters hit by a pitch.
I was very close to playing the Nationals, but then I looked at Gray’s splits against lefties. He’s allowed a career .244/.455/.520 slash with a .373 wOBA. While he’s done way better this season with a .213/.318/.333 slash and a .296 wOBA against, that is way different than last season and he’s also got a 13.6% BB% against LHB on the season. Maybe his adjusted pitch mix and big decrease in four-seam fastballs is the root cause, but this will be a good test to find out.
The Over 8.5 might be a decent play. Oracle Park is designed to limit the effects of wind, but the breeze will be blowing out to CF at a 20 mph clip and it will be a little warmer with the afternoon first pitch.
New York Mets (-150, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
Our first nighttime game of the day is in Cincinnati between the Mets and Reds. It will be Justin Verlander’s second start of the season and the eighth for Hunter Greene. Greene let us down last time out with five runs allowed on seven hits in 5.2 innings, as he gave up his first two homers since Opening Day. The Elvis Andrus three-pointer was particularly brutal, since Andrus is a pretty bad hitter at this stage of his career.
Greene struck out seven and walked one and has a 3.74 ERA with a 2.93 FIP in his 33.2 innings of work. He’s allowed a .384 BABIP, which is pretty high, but he also has a 43.8% Hard Hit%, so he’s given up some loud contact that has just stayed in the park. That last start was the first one in which he’s given up more than three runs in a start, so we’ll see if he can bounce back today.
Verlander made his 2023 debut against the Tigers and allowed two runs on five hits in five innings. He allowed nine hard-hit balls in 14 batted ball events and two barrels, which both left the yard. He wasn’t super sharp, which is easy to understand when you think about it being his first start after just one rehab start at Double-A. As he keeps moving forward with his season, I can’t imagine we see a 1.75 ERA with a 2.49 FIP like we saw in 2022, but I think he’ll still be a really big contributor for the Mets.
Let’s see if he looks sharper in his second outing. I also want to see if Greene bounces back.
St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5) at Chicago Cubs
The betting markets have spoken on this one, as the Cardinals are now favored on the road at Wrigley Field behind Jordan Montgomery. Justin Steele takes the hill for the Cubs and it appears as though bettors are looking for his regression signs to come to the forefront. Steele has a 1.45 ERA with a 3.16 FIP and faces a Cardinals lineup that has historically been really good against left-handed pitchers.
This year’s Cardinals crop ranks eighth in wOBA at .339. Of course, this year’s Cubs bunch is sixth in wOBA against southpaws at .343 and gets a lefty in Montgomery who has a 3.29 ERA with a 2.83 FIP. Seven of Montgomery’s 15 earned runs came in his April 18 start against the Diamondbacks, so he’s only allowed eight runs in six starts otherwise. He also gave up three runs in his first start against the Blue Jays, so five of his last six starts have been really strong.
Steele’s .246 BABIP and 84.6% LOB% are both ripe for regression and that’s what the market is betting on here with a Cardinals team that you could traditionally count on to do well against guys like this. I’m looking for spots to fade Steele as well, but I also have to give him a lot of respect. His Hard Hit% is 23.3%, which is absurd, and he’s only allowed four barrels. There are numerous starters who have allowed four barrels in one start, let alone four barrels over seven starts.
I respect the market movement, but I also respect these two pitchers. Let’s see which offense comes out on top with a couple of stingy southpaws.
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees (-250, 9.5)
Kyle Muller and Jhony Brito wrap up this series in the Bronx after we saw a good bit of run scoring last night. This is not an optimal ballpark for Muller, a southpaw who has a 6.62 ERA with a 5.67 FIP in 34 innings of work. In 14.1 innings on the road, Muller has allowed a .373/.444/.593 slash and a .437 wOBA. It’s not like he’s been that much better at home, but his ERA is about cut in half and his FIP is quite a bit lower.
These are small sample sizes for Muller, but being a pitch-to-contact guy in Oakland can work out. It really can’t in the Bronx or a lot of other road venues. The other big problem for Muller is that he is walking way too many dudes. He’s walked 18 batters in 34 innings against just 21 strikeouts. When you add in a 50.8% Hard Hit%, you start looking at a guy who profiles as one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
Brito heads into this start with a 6.08 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. He’s still trying to shake off the effects of allowing seven runs while only recording two outs against the Twins back on April 13. If you take that start away, Brito has allowed 11 earned runs in 26 innings for a 3.81 ERA. However, you can’t just eliminate starts and his last start against the Rays wasn’t that great with four runs allowed on six hits in four innings of work. Brito also has a bad K/BB ratio of 19/12.
He’s had some tough assignments early in his MLB career and the A’s have to feel like a little bit of a respite, even though they are a very capable offense on the road.
I’d be pretty surprised if the Yankees don’t knock Muller around today, but this was a really early game, leaving me no time to put anything out there.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-115, 7)
Peyton Battenfield was really good last time out, as he struck out seven Twins over seven innings of two-run ball. Given that he had walked 11 batters over his previous three starts, his 7/0 K/BB ratio in that Twins start really came out of nowhere. However, the same issue I’ve been staring at was present again, he just happened to work around it.
By appearance, Battenfield’s average exit velocity against has been 91.7, 94.3, 95.8, 96.6, 95 mph. Add it all up and that’s a 50.7% Hard Hit% with a 17.9% Barrel%. His command profile is downright horrifying. The fact that he has a .222 BABIP with all of that violent contact is simply astounding. And I would not expect that to continue. He’s extremely fortunate to have a 4.07 ERA, as his 5.09 FIP and 6.32 xERA suggest.
The resurgence of Eduardo Rodriguez is one of this season’s top storylines. E-Rod has a 1.81 ERA with a 3.28 FIP in 44.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 39 and walked eight while only allowing nine runs on 27 hits. He gave up seven runs in his first two starts against the Rays and Astros, so he’s allowed all of two runs in his last five starts covering 34.2 innings of work.
There wasn’t enough lead time to get a play out on this game, but I would’ve taken the Tigers for the article at this price. Battenfield is allowing a lot of hard contact and the Tigers are actually making a good bit of quality contact, especially in games against non-AL East foes, where they are 14-5.
As for the Guardians, they are 4-10 against left-handed starters and 28th in wOBA against lefties at .281. They are 29th in SLG. I am not expecting much out of them today and think Battenfield struggles. I’ll be looking to fade him next time out.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-190, 7.5)
The Mariners get a right-handed pitcher today in Dane Dunning, which is definitely a big deal for them. While they found some success against Andrew Heaney yesterday, they haven’t found much success against lefties on the whole. They are 29th in wOBA against southpaws at .269 and 28th in wRC+ at 73.
Against righties, though, this is roughly a league average bunch with a 101 wRC+ in 1,025 plate appearances. They only rank 18th in wOBA, but the park adjustments help them in wRC+ since T-Mobile Park is not a great offensive venue at all. The Mariners do have the third-highest K% against righties and also strike out a lot against lefties, so they have major issues with making contact.
Fortunately, that doesn’t matter much against Dunning, who only has 14 strikeouts in 25.1 innings of work. This will be just the second start for Dunning, who fired five shutout innings against the Angels five days ago. He’s allowed four earned runs on 14 hits over eight relief outings and the one start. He’s got a 1.42 ERA with a 3.16 FIP and I would certainly expect a correction in his numbers as he returns to starting. He won’t keep running a .187 BABIP as he’s turning over lineups and having to resort to some of his weaker pitches.
The Mariners will turn to Luis Castillo in hopes of winning this series. Castillo has a 2.38 ERA with a 2.53 FIP in his 41.2 innings of work. He’s only allowed 11 runs on 29 hits, but has given up nine of those runs on 18 hits over his last 17 innings of work against the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Astros. The Rangers are a top-10 offense against righties with a .335 wOBA and a 113 wRC+, but they actually rank 20th in road wOBA against righties at .302. They’ve really been able to use the home ballpark to their advantage this season.
Dunning only has a 6.9% SwStr% this season, which should negate Seattle’s biggest issue on offense, which is swinging and missing. The Rangers are also a team that I’m looking to fade because they’ve gotten really lucky with men in scoring position this season. Castillo is a tough guy to hit under most any circumstances, but especially for an overperforming offense that should be falling back to the pack as things move forward.
I don’t like to play a lot of run lines on home teams because they may only bat eight times and finish the game with a one-run lead, but I question Dunning’s ability to turn lineups over long-term, as he posted a .268/.345/.443 slash against and a .344 wOBA in 153.1 innings of work as a starter last season.
In this series, the Rangers were shut out by George Kirby and Logan Gilbert took a no-hitter into the seventh. I don’t anticipate much offense against Castillo and I think the Mariners can get some production against Dunning.