In a matchup that could decide who is going to the Western Conference Finals, the Denver Nuggets will play host to the Phoenix Suns for Tuesday's Game 5. Read on for our Suns vs. Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds.
With the series tied at 2-2, Tuesday's Game 5 is as important as ever when the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets square off. The winner will have the inside track to advance to the Western Conference Finals, where they would likely be the betting favorites to reach the NBA Finals.
The home team has yet to lose a game this series, which bodes well for Denver after it lost back-to-back meetings in Phoenix. This feels like a home-run spot for the Nuggets, but where is the best value in that angle?
Here is our best Suns vs. Nuggets prediction (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Suns vs. Nuggets prediction
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The market has moved the spread two full points in favor of the Nuggets, meaning there is likely minimal value for those betting the side at this point. So we had to get creative by looking at the halftime/full time markets under game props at each of our best NBA betting sites.
You have to pay as much as -145 juice at certain shops to bet on the Nuggets to win both the first half and the full game, so we are getting a nice discount by taking advantage of PointsBet's -115 price. At -115, we have an implied probability of 53.49% for this wager to come through.
Denver is trading as a 3.5-point favorite in the first half at our best sports betting sites, meaning oddsmakers are counting on a strong start from the home team. The Nuggets haven't won a first half in this series since Game 1, but there is plenty of reason to believe that will change.
According to NBA.com, the Nuggets are second in net rating (7.0) during the playoffs, trailing only the Boston Celtics. The Phoenix Suns rank 10th with a net rating of minus-1.0 during the postseason.
In the regular season, the Nuggets were fifth in the league with a first-half rating of 4.3. Denver was also fifth in the league with an average 59.5 points per game in the first half, while Phoenix was 24th with an average of 56.2 points per first 24 minutes.
These two teams are playing their third game in five days after having some extended break earlier in the series. We believe that should benefit the home team, as the Suns lack much depth and are still missing point guar d Chris Paul.
Assuming the Nuggets come out ready to set the tone, they should be in good position to control this game from start to finish.
Suns vs. Nuggets best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver wins first half and full game | Denver wins first half and full game | Denver wins first half and full game | Denver wins first half and full game | Denver wins first half and full game |
| -145 | -135 | -115 | -135 | -115 |
This market is available in the game props section at the best sportsbooks, making it easy to spot the price discrepancy between the shops. In this case, both PointsBet and BetMGM offer us an enticing deal of -115 to take the Nuggets to win the first half and full game.
Because we need to avoid a tie in the first half, we wouldn't recommend playing this longer than -120.
If you are looking for a player prop, I also explained why I'm betting on Suns big man Deandre Ayton in my NBA best bets column for Tuesday.
Suns vs. Nuggets odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
Suns vs. Nuggets odds analysis
This line started as low as 4, but has moved completely in Denver's favor ever since. The Nuggets are now considered 6-point favorites via the best sports betting apps. The total is down to 227.5 after opening at 228.5.
The winner of the game covered the spread in all four contests so far in this series. The Under came through in the first two games, but the last two matchups went Over the closing point total of 225 and 226.
Suns vs. Nuggets game info
- Date: Tuesday, May 9, 10 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Suns-Nuggets pick made 05/09/2023 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
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