MLB schedule today has 11 games
A new week begins with 11 games on a Monday and not a single day game. Sorry to those who wanted to have some distractions from the work day, but you’ll have to wait until 6:10 p.m. ET for the first game of the day. We’ve got five games in the National League and six games in the American League following a weekend that was all over the place.
It sure seemed like we had a ton of offense around the league, but the Friday-Sunday numbers were .250/.322/.400 with 424 runs scored across 45 games. The K% was down once again and we lost even more pitchers to the injured list. Base stealers were only 67-for-87 (77%), so it seems like maybe pitchers and catchers have adjusted a little bit to the rule changes. The league-wide SB% is down to 78.8% after sitting north of 80% for most of April.
For the season, we’re looking at .248/.321/.407, so last weekend had some more hits, but less power. For the first week of May, we’re at .252/.323/.414. There will continue to be variance in small sample sizes based on the matchups and the pitchers that are in action, but this would follow an annual trend of better offense as the weather warms up. (Tracking sheet)
Tune in for a new edition of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets, including the sabermetric stat of the day.
Here are some thoughts on the May 8 card (odds from DraftKings):
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates (-170, 8.5)
The Pirates have to be very happy to not see an AL East team on the schedule today. The AL East is just bludgeoning the rest of the league in head-to-head meetings and that rang very true last week, as the Pirates lost six straight to the Rays and Jays to run their losing streak out to seven games.
The task at hand looks a good bit easier today with a visit from the Rockies, but Colorado is actually playing way better lately. They won a road series against the Guardians last month and then swept the Brewers before winning a road series over the Mets. I’m still not much of a believer in the Rockies, but this is a prime example of how teams that start bad aren’t really as bad as they are. Look at what the White Sox did this past week. The Royals and A’s both looked better last week.
Similarly, the teams out to blazing starts always regress back to the pack a bit. Even the Rays will at some point. The Pirates certainly have, but all signs point to them ending their losing streak at seven here. They rank sixth in wOBA at .345 against lefties and get a very hittable one today in Kyle Freeland. Freeland has a 3.76 ERA, but a 5.00 FIP, as he’s got a .245 BABIP with a lot of balls in play and a really bad defensive team. He’s on regular rest here despite leaving his last start early with a neck issue. He threw five shutout innings against a Brewers bunch that is horrible against lefties.
The Pirates will send out Mitch Keller, who allowed four unearned runs and one earned run last start against the Rays. He has a 3.32 ERA with a 3.30 FIP and has been one of many reasons why the Pirates had gotten off to such a great start. He’s struck out 48 in 40.2 innings, so if the K% spike sticks around, this may very well be the Keller we see the rest of the year. Personally, I don’t see it, since he has a 10.6% SwStr% and that is below league average.
I can’t really trust the Rockies on the road enough to think about an over here and Keller probably pitches well against a weak lineup. But, I will be looking for spots to go against him because I don’t think what we’re seeing is totally real. Is he better? Sure. Is he going to run a 25.5% Hard Hit% with a K% that is 6% above his career average and 7.8% better than last season? Probably not.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-130, 7)
This line looked a lot more attractive last night when the Cardinals were mostly +125 in the marketplace, but I understand and agree with the line move on the visitors. This goes back to the conversation I had on the podcast last Thursday about looking at the overnight lines and trying to find these signs for yourself to get some line equity.
Marcus Stroman has a 2.18 ERA with a 3.69 FIP. He has a 60.2% GB% with a .248 BABIP against. As I mentioned prior to his last start, the best BABIP with a 59% or higher GB% dating back to 2015 is .257, so he’s not going to keep having so much success with balls in play. Furthermore, he’s running an 86.1% LOB%, which also won’t stick around. His career mark is 72.9%, which is right at the league average. He also has a 3.97 xERA, despite a career-best 23.3% K%.
You don’t get a career-high in K% with a 9.7% SwStr% if you’re a guy like Stroman. That’s below the league average and also right in line with his career mark. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in six of his seven starts, so I don’t want to belittle what he’s done to this point and he looks nice and healthy, though his velo is down a bit. It’s just that I don’t really see this pace continuing and that’s what analyzing the stats is all about.
Mikolas has been better in his last four starts, though he isn’t where he wants to be just yet. He allowed 16 runs over 14.1 innings to start the season, as he was clearly not ready after being part of the Team USA WBC squad. Since then, he’s allowed eight earned runs on 24 hits in his 23 innings of work. He’s got a 19/6 K/BB ratio and has a 3.13 ERA with a 4.44 FIP. He’s a guy that will regularly run an ERA lower than his FIP because he’s not a big strikeout guy. Stroman does the same, but his peripherals are so out of whack that a correction is coming.
Obviously the weather doesn’t look great for offense, which is why we have a total of 7, but that’s too low here. I know the winds are blowing in at Wrigley and that will dictate how the ball flies, but Stroman is a regression candidate and Mikolas isn’t exactly locating all that well. The Cubs bullpen has fallen apart this week, taking four losses over the last six days. Mark Leiter Jr. is now closing and the top three relievers have all pitched two of the last three days.
The Cardinals bullpen has been used a lot recently as well. I realize the weather matters more at Wrigley than just about any other stadium, but Stroman’s an extreme ground ball guy anyway, so this is more about looking for that BABIP regression out of him.
Pick: Over 7 (-115)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8.5)
There aren’t a whole lot of situational spots in baseball, but this is one for the Dodgers. After finishing up late on Sunday Night Baseball against the rival Padres with a 5-2 win in extra innings, the team boarded a flight for the long trip to Milwaukee. Per FlightAware, the Dodgers’ Boeing 757 landed in Milwaukee at 3:13 a.m. local time, so there could be some sluggish swings against Freddy Peralta this evening.
Teams usually send their starting pitchers early in this situation, so perhaps Tony Gonsolin got a good night’s sleep and wasn’t on that flight. He’s made two starts since returning from a sprained ankle and allowed three runs on seven hits in eight innings of work with five walks and four strikeouts. He didn’t allow a single hard-hit ball against the Pirates in his first start and then allowed five in 16 batted balls against the Phillies. It’ll take him some time to get in rhythm, especially since he only made one rehab start.
Peralta struck out 10 over six innings against the Rockies last week in Colorado, but didn’t get much help from his offense. That has been the ongoing story for the Brewers on the whole, as the offense, which got off to a really hot start, has tailed off of late. Despite a 10.2% BB%, the Brewers are only 11th in wRC+ against righties.
So, we’ll see if Peralta gets some run support here. He’s made six starts and has a 3.63 ERA with a 3.61 FIP in 34.2 innings of work. He had two hiccups in back-to-back starts against the Padres and Red Sox with nine of those 14 runs. Otherwise, he’s shut down most everybody else he has faced. He’s got a 36.6% Hard Hit% against and 41 strikeouts out of 147 batters faced for a solid 27.9% K%.
I thought about a lot of different things here. A fade of the Dodgers off the travel, but I’ve heard players say that the second game is worse because adrenaline kind of takes over for the first game. The under with a couple of jetlagged teams going against guys that don’t allow a lot of hard contact. Ultimately, I didn’t like anything enough to play it here. I also simply don’t trust Milwaukee at this stage.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-205, 8.5)
Zac Gallen faces his former team for the second time this season as the Diamondbacks host the Marlins. Braxton Garrett will look to bounce back from a rough outing against the Braves against a far less daunting lineup. The Marlins were part of Gallen’s scoreless rampage when he fired 6.2 shutout innings at Marlins Park back on April 16 with seven strikeouts.
Gallen struggled last time out with three runs allowed on seven hits, but he struck out six over five innings and didn’t walk a batter for the fourth straight start. He also didn’t allow a home run for the fifth straight start and sixth start out of seven this season. He has a 2.53 ERA with a 1.71 FIP and 57 strikeouts in 42.2 innings of work. He’s been a dominant ace aside from a rocky start to the season against the Dodgers and Padres with nine of the 12 earned runs he has allowed.
Even in those starts, he didn’t really give up a lot of hard contact. It was just one of those days where the batted balls didn’t fall his way. The Marlins have been a pretty decent lineup against lefties, but Gallen is a righty and they are a bottom-five lineup in that split.
Garrett gave up 11 runs on 14 hits to the Braves in his last start and now has a 5.81 ERA with a 4.83 FIP over 26.1 innings of work. It will take a very long time for those kind of start to get swallowed up by some sample size, so we’ll see how that goes for him. He gave up four homers and a ton of hard contact, but credit to him for gutting through 4.1 innings to spare the bullpen a little bit.
Prior to that, Garrett had allowed six earned runs in 22 innings of work. The Diamondbacks are 17th in wOBA against lefties, so I would assume Garrett does at least a little bit better in this outing. That being said, Garrett’s Hard Hit% is up to 48.4% after that barrage and he had allowed a HH% of 46.7% or higher in each of his previous three appearances, including a lot of rare hard contact from the Guardians on April 22.
I was thinking about the under, but Garrett’s recent command profile really scares me.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants (-225, 8.5)
Jake Irvin will make his second MLB start as the Nationals battle the Giants out on the west coast. Irvin bobbed and weaved through 4.1 innings against the Cubs and allowed just one run on two hits with four walks against three strikeouts. He did a good job of limiting hard contact, but got very little swing and miss and almost no chases outside the zone. It seems like there was some a little deception in his 6-foot-6 frame or maybe that he just had long extension to the plate and the fastball snuck up on guys.
We’ll see if the Giants have more success, but we really don’t have much to go on. Irvin didn’t allow an outrageous rate of home runs or anything in the minors, which is important to think about with a left-handed-heavy Giants bunch that hits for power.
Anthony DeSclafani has a 2.13 ERA with a 3.38 FIP over 38 innings of work. He’s got a 30/3 K/BB ratio and has only given up nine earned runs across his six starts, including eight shutout innings last time out against the Astros. Disco does have a 45.9% Hard Hit% and has given up 11 barrels to this point, but has a .224 BABIP against with a pretty bad Giants defensive team in support. I’m not buying his stock long-term, but the Nationals are 26th in wOBA against righties. It’s too bad DeSclafani isn’t a lefty, but this total would probably be 9 if he was.
This is not a pleasant card to this point, so let’s see what the AL has in store.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-195, 7.5)
The Guardians still can’t hit, but they took the weekend series from the Twins to get some positive vibes going into a week where they are likely to face five left-handed pitchers. Cleveland can’t hit pitchers from either side, but they are 28th in wOBA against lefties, better than only the Mariners and Brewers. Of the bottom seven teams in wOBA against lefties, Cleveland has the lowest K% at 20.8%. The next lowest is 24%. That gives you an idea how little power the Guardians have generated in this split. Only Milwaukee has a lower SLG.
Despite putting a lot of balls in play, Cleveland still ranks among the lineups that strike out a lot and that is not the place where you want to be. They face a pretty hittable lefty here in Joey Wentz, who has a 6.67 ERA with a 5.61 FIP in his 28.1 innings of work. Wentz has allowed six homers, with three in his last start against the Mets. He’s allowed 21 runs on 30 hits and only has 22 strikeouts out of 122 batters faced.
Righties own a .291/.351/.547 slash with a .385 wOBA against him in 94 plate appearances, so those that scour the player prop markets for value may find some here. I will say that Wentz has had some tough matchups. He’s faced Baltimore twice, as well as Tampa Bay and Boston. The Mets offense has been fairly quiet for its talent level this season, but they’re always capable of something like what they did last time out. Cleveland isn’t on that level at all. Wentz has a 6.67 ERA and this total is 7.5, which speaks to how poor the projection is for Cleveland’s offense on a nightly basis.