Home favorites look to cover, and star players have come out to shine for Saturday's two-game slate in the Association. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday are based on the best NBA odds.
After a humiliating, 27-point defeat in Game 2, the Los Angeles Lakers will look to retake the series lead over the Golden State Warriors at home, but Stephen Curry will surely have something to say about that.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat nearly went up 2-0 at Madison Square Garden without Jimmy Butler, and Butler's imminent return in Game 3 could mean a home win against the New York Knicks.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday (odds via BetMGM, FanDuel, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New York Knicks (+4) vs. Miami Heat
- Golden State Warriors (+3) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Jimmy Butler Over 29.5 points (+150 via FanDuel) vs. Knicks ???
- Player parlay: Stephen Curry Over 29.5 points + Over 4.5 3-pointers (+104 via FanDuel) vs. Lakers ????
- Spread: Heat -4 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Knicks ????
- Spread: Lakers -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Warriors ???
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Saturday's NBA player prop picks
After willing his team to a monstrous first-round upset of the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, Butler led the Heat to a win over New York to open up the Eastern Conference semifinals. Unfortunately, he tweaked his ankle in the win, and despite finishing that contest, he was sidelined for Game 2. Miami lost a close one, and in the final seconds, Butler was seen smiling, nodding, and waving to the crowd at Madison Square Garden.
That crazed look surely means Butler will be locked in for Game 3 if he's able to play, and all signs point to him taking the court.
Through six playoff appearances this season, he leads the NBA in points per game at 35.5, and he's scored at least 30 points in four games. Butler has scored 29.3% of his team's points, highlighting just how much he's relied on to carry the offensive load.
He scored 33 and 35 points in two regular-season matchups with New York in South Beach, and we're banking on the rested and motivated Jimmy Buckets to come out hot at home.
How about another Warriors points + 3-pointers prop? We hit on Klay Thompson's big game in Thursday's best bets column, but now it's Curry's turn. Curry finished Game 2 with his most assists (12) in a playoff game since 2014. He scored 20, but the night could have been even bigger had the Warriors not blown the doors off the Lakers.
Curry has averaged 31.4 points in the playoffs, and though he hasn't hit the 30-point mark against the Lakers in this series, he did it in five of seven games against the Kings in Round 1. He's also averaged 4.8 triples and knocked down at least five in six games.
After a narrow loss in Game 1, the Dubs came roaring back in Game 2 with a 27-point victory at home. With four titles and six Finals appearances under his belt, Curry knows the importance of the upcoming Game 3 and understands that he can't afford to rest on his laurels after notching the series at a game apiece. Look for him to come out aggressive and set the tone for his team on the road.
We're taking his alternative point total at 29.5, and if we do that, we're taking the 3-pointers, too. Curry has 33 games with at least 30 points this season, and he hit at least five triples in 23 of them.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
NBA game picks
The Heat delivered a convincing win in Game 1, and without Butler, oddsmakers counted the Heat out in Game 2. Miami went into Game 2 as a 10-point dog, but the squad kept things close until the final minutes, losing by only six and covering for a fifth straight game and seventh in its last eight.
The Knicks won Game 2 in front of the home crowd behind 25 points from Julius Randle, 24 from RJ Barrett, and 30 from Jalen Brunson. New York shot 40% from beyond the arc as a team, but the Knicks were able to win by only six in what should have been a cakewalk. Butler should be able to go in Game 3, and given how well he and the Heat have played this postseason, we're backing the home team to cover.
If you're squeamish about the four points and just want to take the Heat moneyline, Caesars is offering the “Jimmy Buckets Boost” at +240 for Butler Over 29.5 points + Heat moneyline. The best odds for that parlay at any other of our featured books comes in at +236 on FanDuel, so this is a nice boost.
Los Angeles got the better of Golden State in Game 1, but it was the Warriors on top in glorious fashion in a Game 2 blowout. The Warriors can retake home-court advantage and take the lead in the series with a win at Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, but getting a win at Los Angeles has been tough over the last three seasons. In six games at Los Angeles since 2020, the Warriors are just 2-4 straight-up with a minus-7.6 point differential per game.
The Lakers have covered in five of eight playoff games, including all three at home thus far. Going back to the regular season, Los Angeles is 4-2 straight-up and ATS at home. Meanwhile, Golden State is 13-31 ATS on the road, and the Warriors finished the regular season as one of the worst road teams in the Association.
Anthony Davis was minimized and the Lakers were embarrassed in Game 2, so the team should be motivated to get back on track at home Saturday. Given how well the Lakers have played at home as of late and how poorly the Warriors have played on the road all season, we're taking the Lakers and the small spread.
NBA best bets made 05/06/2023 at 1:05 a.m. ET.
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