Yankees-Rays prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, May 6

The second game of a heated AL East rivalry takes place Saturday when the New York Yankees visit Tropicana Field to take on the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. E.T. Domingo German (2-2, 4.46 ERA) looks to even this three-game series for New York, while righty Drew Rasmussen (3-2, 3.66) gets the ball for the Rays.

Tampa Bay is a -170 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Yankees are +145 underdogs. The run total is set at 7.5.

Yankees

Day to day: SP Nestor Cortes (illness), INF Oswald Peraza (ankle)

Out: OF Aaron Judge (hip), OF Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (elbow), 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring), SP Luis Severino (lat), RP Lou Trivino (elbow), SP Carlos Rodon (elbow), RP Tommy Kahnle (biceps), C Ben Rortvedt (shoulder), SP Frankie Montas (shoulder), RP Scott Effross (elbow), SP Luis Gil (elbow)

Rays

Day to day: SP Josh Fleming (foot)

Out: RP Pete Fairbanks (forearm), RP Jeffrey Springs (elbow), SP Tyler Glasnow (oblique), RP Shawn Armstrong (neck), SP Shane Baz (elbow), RP Andrew Kittredge (elbow)

Domingo German vs. Drew Rasmussen

German has had an up-and-down 2023 season so far, alternating brilliant outings – 14.2 innings, two runs, 17 Ks across two starts against the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians – and crooked numbers (10 runs in 12 innings against the Twins and Toronto Blue Jays). The righty is leaning into his curveball more than ever before, over 40 percent of the time, and it's returning a .242 slugging percentage and eye-popping 38.5% whiff rate. The home run ball has gotten him in trouble, though, with four of his seven long balls allowed coming off a four-seam fastball that opponents are hitting .321 against.

Rasmussen has struggled of late, with eight runs on 18 hits over his last 9.2 innings. That could be just some poor batted-ball luck, though: Rasmussen is forcing more grounders (with just two homers allowed all year) and more weak contact than ever, and he should get back on track soon.

These teams combined to score nine runs last night, and while Rasmussen should pitch pretty well against a Yankees lineup missing Judge and Stanton, German's penchant for blow-ups has us leaning the over.

Pick: Over 7.5

The Rays have won seven of their last 10 games and have lost just six games overall on the season. Meanwhile, New York has lost six of their last 10 and are nine games back of Tampa in the AL East.

Pick: Rays

  
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