The Toronto Maple Leafs can take a 3-1 lead back to Scotiabank Arena with a Game 4 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Monday. The two clubs have been playing a high-flying brand of hockey to start their first-round series, but Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker expects to see adjustments in Game 4. Read on for his top Maple Leafs vs. Lightning pick based on the best NHL odds from our best sports betting sites.
It's tough to label Game 4 as a must-win spot for the Lightning, but only 31 teams have overcome a 3-1 series deficit in NHL history, so there's plenty on the line in Tampa on Monday.
Injuries continue to be a topic of discussion for the Bolts. No. 1 defenseman Victor Hedman returned in Game 3 and logged 32:35 of ice time. However, top center Brayden Point also sustained an injury and briefly exited Saturday's tilt. Head coach Jo n Cooper expects Point to suit up Monday, but will he be fully healthy?
The Maple Leafs also have multiple, unnamed players deemed as game-time decisions by bench boss Sheldon Keefe.
After the two teams combined for 123 hits in Game 3, I'm anticipating another hard-fought battle with fewer goals to unfold Monday.
Here is our best Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning pick
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While it's impossible to accurately quantify motivation, I'd be shocked if the Maple Leafs and Lightning aren't focused on tidying up their defensive play to start Game 4.
There were 10 first-period goals through the first three games of the series, and the two clubs combined for a 15.2 shooting percentage. It's a small playoff sample, but Toronto and Tampa Bay respectively posted 10.6 and 10.7 marks during the regular season.
The two clubs also combined for just 5.04 expected goals in the first frame across the first three contests.
Add the multiple injuries both teams are dealing with, and I'm anticipating the Maple Leafs and Lightning focusing on taking care of their own end of the ice first and foremost to start Monday's tilt.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals |
| +115 | +100 | +100 | +115 | +120 ?? |
I've been eyeing the no goal in the first 10 minutes prop during these playoffs, and it is a potential pivot from this bet. The best odds for the prop are +130 through DraftKings.
However, landing the +120 odds through PointsBet for there to be Under 1.5 goals is my preferred play. There's also a sneaky good odds advantage, too. The +120 number presents a positive expected value of 10% and an added $2 of profit on a winning $10 dollar bet over the +100 odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds
Check out our Stanley Cup odds and Conn Smythe Trophy odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds analysis
The Maple Leafs are slight betting favorites through most of our best sportsbooks, with the best price -110 through DraftKings. The most favorable number to back the Lightning is -105 through FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. Additionally, a couple shops have moved the line further in the Toronto direction since opening, but it's been just a small adjustment.
I'd also highly recommend betting this game through Caesars. It's hanging the same -115 odds for both the Maple Leafs and Lightning. It adds up to a 30-cent vig, while FanDuel is charging just 19 cents.
There hasn't been any movement to the total of 6.5. The Under is carrying the higher vig at all our best NHL betting sites Monday afternoon, but the Over has received 56% of betting action, according to our matchup page.
It's definitely worth noting that BetMGM released its betting insights for every Round 1 series. The Maple Leafs are -350 to advance to Round 2, and they've received 74% of the betting handle ahead of Game 4.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning game info
- Date: Monday, April 24, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
- TV: TBS, Sportsnet, CBC
- Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning pick made 4/24/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Here are our best NHL betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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