Twenty-two Major League Baseball teams are in action on Monday as 11 new series kick off the last week of April. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
There are more interleague series (four) beginning Monday than ones between division rivals (three). Meanwhile, two American League contenders clash in Tampa Bay as the Rays look to keep their perfect home record (13-0) intact against the Houston Astros.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
- Colorado Rockies (+180) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-210)
- Boston Red Sox (-115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-105)
- Houston Astros (+130) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-150)
- Texas Rangers (-110) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-110)
- Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-165)
- Miami Marlins (+200) vs. Atlanta Braves (-240)
- Detroit Tigers (+135) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-155)
- New York Yankees (+115) vs. Minnesota Twins (-135)
- Oakland Athletics (+175) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-205)
- Kansas City Royals (-110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-125) vs. San Francisco Giants (+105)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+500 via FanDuel) vs. Astros ???
- Player prop: Chris Bassitt Over 18.5 outs (+127 via Caesar s) vs. White Sox ???
- Player prop: Chris Sale to record a win (+155 via DraftKings) vs. Orioles ???
- Upset: Royals (+116 via FanDuel) vs. Diamondbacks ????
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Monday's MLB prop picks
Entering Sunday, the Rays' plus-85 run differential (now plus-88) was a team's most through the first 21 games, largely because they have homered in all 22 games so far. Thus, we felt compelled to ride this streak until Tampa Bay gives us reason not to, and Yandy Diaz is the only Rays hitter who has homered off Jose Urquidy in the past.
Diaz's only hit in seven career at-bats against Urquidy left the yard. However, Urquidy's HR/9 rate has risen each of the previous four seasons, and his 1.8 HR/9 rate this year is on pace to be the worst of his career. Urquidy has been burned by a .333 BABIP and .827 OPS this year, as his 5.34 FIP is a more accurate telling of how he has pitched this year than his 3.66 ERA. This is a three-star play as Diaz is tied for the team lead in home runs with Brandon Lowe (six).
We are making this wager at FanDuel. Its +500 odds trump those found at our other best sports betting apps, including the +440 found at Caesars and +475 found at DraftKings.
Chicago enters this game as the loser of six of seven games (four straight) and has scored four or fewer runs in all but one game in that span. The White Sox are missing the services of Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, as Anderson's .298 average and Moncada's .889 OPS each rank third on the team. Over the last seven days, Chicago ranks 20th in wRC+ and wOBA and has the third-worst strikeout rate (28.6%).
Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt has averaged the second-most pitches per start (92.5) of any pitcher in the team's rotation despite pitching to a 5.40 ERA. Bassitt needs to keep the ball in the yard (his five home runs allowed make for the team's second-worst HR/9 rate) when facing a team that ranks 12th in ISO over the last week. However, Bassitt has gone at least six innings in three consecutive starts, and a meeting with Chicago represents another opportunity to improve upon a strikeout and barrel percentage that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league.
We are not making this anything more than a three-star play, as a high O/U of nine runs is a concern. We are getting slightly better value for this wager at Caesars among our best sports betting sites, as DraftKings is at +120 for the same number.
Boston's Chris Sale has poor numbers this year (1-1, 8.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but the Red Sox have still won three of his four starts, and the team has quietly won five of seven series to begin the year. Now, Sale faces an Orioles lineup that he is 10-3 against with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 24 career appearances (18 starts), and one he has held to a .208/.265/.398 slash line. Though he has struggled with control, walking two-plus batters in all four starts, he is coming off a season-high 11-strikeout performance against Minnesota, his 28th 11-plus-strikeout regular-season start since 2017.
Sale was lit up for seven earned runs in three innings in his first start against Baltimore this season (including three home runs), but the fact that Boston is a road favorite with a low O/U (eight runs) suggests oddsmakers believe he is in for a big bounce-back start. His velocity is down an average of at least one MPH on all four of his pitches, but he has generated a whiff percentage of 36% or higher on his four-seamer, slider, and changeup, and we like his chances of earning a road victory.
DraftKings offers better value than Caesars, which is at +139 for Sale to earn the victory.
Monday's MLB game picks
Kansas City starter Brad Keller's resurgence from a poor year last season is one of the biggest reasons we like the Royals to win this road series opener. Of all starting pitchers with an ERA north of 4.00 and a minimum of 100 innings pitched last season, Keller's 3.00 ERA this season is the fourth-lowest. A big reason is that he ranks in the top third of the league in barrels and xBA, and he has one of the highest ground ball rates (59.3%), which offsets his lack of control at times (5.6 BB/9 ranks in the 11th percentile).
Arizona's Tommy Henry makes his first start of the season after going 3-4 with a 5.36 ERA and an unimpressive 36:21 K:BB ratio in nine starts last year. His ERA was an even worse 5.51 in five Cactus League appearances (four starts), and he should be on a short leash in this spot start.
Considering the Royals opened as -110 co-favorites with the Diamondbacks, we are excited about the great value at FanDuel and are not worried about the line movement going against them.
MLB best bets made 4/24/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.
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