The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 12-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 7-14 ATS.
Marlins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+7.60 Units / 127% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.50 Units / 94% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.10 Units / 68% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Guardians vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
Guardians vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 9-12 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -20.71% ROI).
- 12-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 15.58% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -40.61% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.25 Units / 31.05% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 7-14 against the Run Line (-7.25 Units / -28.94% ROI).
- 10-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -15.99% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -13.98% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 5.01% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .609 (23 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (64/192) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (9-for-18) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 33% (130/396) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.