Rockies-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, April 23

The Philadelphia Phillies have eked out two straight 4-3 wins over the Colorado Rockies, and now they'll look to take this four-game set in the finale on Sunday afternoon. It's an early start time, with first pitch scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET. Jose Urena (0-3, 9.82 ERA) will go for Colorado, while Zack Wheeler (1-1, 4.79) looks to get back on track for Philly.

The Phillies are currently -295 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rockies are +245 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.

Rockies-Phillies picks: Sunday, April 23

Rockies

Day to day: OF Kris Bryant (hip)

Out: SP German Marquez (forearm), SP Antonio Senzatela (knee), OF Randal Grichuk (groin)

Phillies

Out: SP Ranger Suarez (forearm), RP Nick Nelson (hamstring), OF Bryce Harper (elbow), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), RP Andrew Bellatti (triceps)

Jose Urena vs. Zack Wheeler

Urena has been a disaster in his second season with the Rockies, with a 9.82 ERA that's among the worst of any qualified starter. He's allowed fewer than four earned runs in a start just once this year, and is coming off an outing in which he was lit up by the Pittsburgh Pirates for five runs on seven hits in four innings of work. The righty throws pretty hard, but he doesn't earn many swings and misses and gives up a ton of loud contact.

After establishing himself as a true ace in Philly, Wheeler has taken a bit of a step back this year. He seemed to have straightened himself out in six strong innings against the Miami Marlins, only to get roughed up earlier this week by the Chicago White Sox to the tune of four runs on eight hits over five innings. There does appear to be some bad luck involved here, though: Wheeler's strikeout rate is slightly down and walk and line drive rates are slightly up, but he still grades out very well in terms of missing bats and limiting hard contact. Statcast says his expected ERA is more than a run and a half lower (3.20) than his current number, so this could be the day things start to turn around for the righty.

These teams haven't reached this number in any of the three games in this series, checking in at 5, 7 and 7. Granted, Urena wasn't pitching, but even if the Rockies starter gets roughed up a bit, I think Wheeler will hold down Colorado's bats enough for the under to cash.

Pick: Under 9

The Rockies have yet to win a game that Urena starts, and I think that continues today against a pitcher in Wheeler who'll be looking to take out some early-season frustration.

Pick: Phillies

  
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