Cashing an MLB home run prop ticket to start your weekend off sounds awesome to me, and the price gap in the market across our best MLB betting sites offers advantages to bettors. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his top MLB home run prop picks for Friday.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Friday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our MLB best bets for Friday.
Friday's MLB home run props
- Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 home runs (+425 via DraftKings) ?
- Rowdy Tellez Over 0.5 home runs (+425 via BetMGM) ?
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Friday's MLB home run prop picks
The Mariners third baseman is in a 5-for-25 funk with a single home run, so facing a soft-tossing lefty might be exactly what he needs to square up a long ball.
St. Louis Cardinals starter Steven Matz is surrendering a 1.76 HR/9 to right-handed hitters dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Suarez sports an elite .255 ISO and 40.2 hard-hit rate against lefties during the same period.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +425 | +340 ?? | +425 | +400 | +425 |
I've often looked at Suarez in this market across our best sportsbooks when Seattle is facing a southpaw. But his odds have always been in the neighborhood of the +340 FanDuel is hanging. But I'm far more interested because of the widely available +425.
The edge leads to a positive expected value of 19%, and an additional $8.50 in profit on a winning $10 dollar ticket.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
Tellez crushes righties, and Boston Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has served up 14 homers and 1.69 HR/9 to lefties since the beginning of the 2022 campaign.
It's also been five games since Tellez registered an extra-base hit, so I'm expecting statistical correction at the dish. He's teed off on righties to the tune of a .279 ISO and 40.7 hard-hit rate ove r the past two years.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +425 | +340 ?? | +400 | +410 | N/A |
This is another example of when shopping across our best sports betting sites results in an edge. We're landing the same advantage with these prices as the Suarez nod.
There are also multiple options to back Tellez in the total bases markets. He's priced at +110 for two-plus total bases through FanDuel, and the best price for his 0.5 total bases is -154 through BetMGM.
Check out our World Series odds and picks.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/21/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Revie w
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)