The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-140) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Marlins vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Marlins are 10-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 7-12 ATS.

Marlins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+7.40 Units / 123% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+13.05 Units / 72% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 82% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 66% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.90 Units / 99% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.45 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 9% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.75 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 7-12 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -31.09% ROI).

• 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 5.98% ROI
• 6-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -34.14% ROI
• 12-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 24.76% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 7-12 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -22.78% ROI).

• 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -6.71% ROI
• 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -4.76% ROI
• 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -4.09% ROI

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Braxton Garrett has not walked any of the 43 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to September 29th, 2022 — the longest active streak is 11.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 53% (16/30) against Braxton Garrett with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .366 (15-for-41) against Braxton Garrett this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .259 — sixth Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.085 (112 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .719 — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .455 (112 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .400 (40-for-100) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.

  
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