The Boston Red Sox (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Red Sox vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 10-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 13-6 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+8.30 Units / 119% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 43% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.25 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 10-10 against the Run Line (+0.05 Units / 0.21% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -7.2% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 34.02% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -43.6% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 13-6 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI).
- 14-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.9 Units / 49.66% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -10.82% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.73% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 152 opportunities (4%) since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 81 of 837 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 22 of 201 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (380/838) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .100 (46-for-461) against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .189 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting just .154 (94-for-610) against Freddy Peralta since the 2020 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .094 (52-for-552) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the 2020 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 100th Percentile.