Ten new series begin Friday to kick off an exciting weekend of Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
Before Wednesday, the Los Angeles Dodgers hadn't been home underdogs since August 2018. The New York Mets proved oddsmakers right with a 5-3 victory, and the Dodgers were again small -105 road underdogs to start a new series yesterday in Wrigley Field. Given all the changes to the Dodgers' roster (losing Cody Bellinger, Trea Turner, etc.), Los Angeles is not viewed as the king of the National League anymore and will be playing most of its games under vastly different circumstances odds-wise.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's MLB schedule and odds
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) vs. Chicago Cubs (+150)
- Cincinnati Reds (+120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-140)
- Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-165)
- Colorado Rockies (+250) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-300)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+115) vs. New York Yankees (-135)
- Detroit Tigers (+150) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-175)
- Miami Marlins (+120) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-140)
- Houston Astros (+105) vs. Atlanta Braves (-125)
- Oakland Athletics (+170) vs. Texas Rangers (-200)
- Washington Nationals (+185) vs. Minnesota Twins (-215)
- Boston Red Sox (+150) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-175)
- Kansas City Royals (+235) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-280)
- San Diego Padres (-110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+120) vs. Seattle Mariners (-140)
- New York Mets (-110) vs. San Francis co Giants (-110)
Friday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Tyler Mahle to record win (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ???
- Player prop: Steven Matz Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145 via DraftKings) vs. Mariners ????
- Player prop: Marcus Semien to hit home run (+400 via Caesars) vs. Athletics ???
- Total: Blue Jays vs. Yankees Over 8.5 (-122 via FanDuel) ????
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Friday's MLB prop picks
Minnesota is the second-biggest favorite among all American League teams on today's slate. The Twins have the A.L.'s fifth-best run differential (plus-17) and are facing a Nationals team with the N.L.'s third-worst run differential (minus-25), so we are getting great odds for Tyler Mahle to record a win as a result.
Mahle has only 33 wins in 120 career starts but averages 5.2 innings per appearance, which is important considering five innings are required to earn a win. Though his 1.435 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 rates are on pace to be his highest since 2018, that should not be an issue against a Nationals offense that has hit a league-low eight home runs and ranks in the bottom half of the league in BABIP.
This is a three-star play, as Mahle's swing-and-miss stuff (10.6 K/9) is on pace to be the second-highest of his career, and he ranks in the top third of all pitchers in whiff percentage and average exit velocity.
We are making this play at DraftKings, as Caesars' +104 is the lowest price among our best sports betting apps.
Seattle's moneyline odds have seen a steam movement overnight, going from a small home underdog to -140 favorites. And despite the total raising from 7.5 to 8.5 runs, we are still confident in Steven Matz's ability to pitch well for St. Louis.
The Cardinals have lost all three of Matz's starts by a combined 17-8, and he has allowed nine hits and four earned runs in two of the three starts. However, he has still recorded at least 16 outs in every start this season, as his durability (team-leading 98.7 pitches per start) helps to overcome a 1.80 WHIP.
From a run-production standpoint, Matz is coming off his best start of the season and can build off the momentum of limiting the Pirates to two runs despite issuing five walks. The Mariners are one of the least patient teams at the plate (8.5% walk rate ranks 21st), so Matz should be more confident attacking the strike zone in his fourth start.
Caesars has odds of -152, and FanDuel's alternate strikeout lines are even more astronomical, with Matz at -400 to record five-plus Ks. Thus, -145 odds are not too steep to pay at DraftKings, all things considered.
The Oakland A's pivoted from James Kaprelian to JP Sears as their starting pitcher on Friday, and Marcus Semien went from 3-for-12 in his career against Kaprielian, with two hits being home runs, to 1-for-6 against Sears with that hit also being a home run. Semien is also likely to put the ball in play in his at-bats against Sears, as the southpaw ranks in the 29th percentile in strikeout percentage.
Semien leads the Rangers with four home runs this season, and his .848 OPS is the highest of any Rangers hitter with at least 50 at-bats. Semien has been on a tear over the last six games, batting .478 (11-for-23) with three home runs, 11 RBIs, and an impressive 5:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
In addition, Sears ranks in the eighth percentile in xSLG and fourth in barrels, so we are making it a three-star play for Semien to get a hold of one and take Sears (or any of the A's relievers) deep.
Friday's MLB game picks
The Yankees entered Thursday as the most profitable team to the Under this season, cashing it in 12 of 18 games. However, their offense should get hot against a Blue Jays pitching staff that has allowed the fourth-most runs in the American League, while we also expect some regression from righty Domingo German.
German's xERA (3.35) is better than his actual ERA (3.86), but his elite strikeout numbers (89th percentile in K%, 91st in Whiff%) should be mitigated by a Blue Jays lineup that ranks in the top 10 in strikeout rate.
Conversely, Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a .280/.367/.495 slash line to current Yankees over a combined 93 at-bats. In addition, three of New York's biggest hitters (DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Judge) all have an OPS of .928 or better against Kikuchi, which suggests it should get a lot of run production from the top of the order.
FanDuel is the only of our best sports betting sites offering a total of 8.5, while all other sportsbooks are a half-run higher. Thus, we do not mind paying slightly extra in juice for the extra insurance.
MLB best bets made 4/21/2023 at 6:33 a.m. ET.
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