The Tampa Bay Lightning put a seven-spot on the scoreboard against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 on Tuesday, and the rematch feels like last year's Game 2 after Toronto topped Tampa 5-0 in the series opener. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has assessed the matchup and provides his Lightning vs. Maple Leafs same-game parlay based on the top NHL Odds across our best sportsbooks.
With the Maple Leafs looking to avoid another first-round exit, winning Thursday is almost a must. Trailing the Lightning 2-0 when the plane leaves for Tampa would make advancing to Round 2 a potentially impossible feat for Toronto.
It's not all doom and gloom in Toronto following the Game 1 drubbing. The Maple Leafs are a sizable favorite to beat the Lightning on Thursday. The problem: Toronto was also a sizable favorite to win Tuesday.
Here are o ur best Lightning vs. Maple Leafs SGP picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs SGP picks
- Tampa Bay Lightning +2.5 (-320) ???
- Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+158) ?
- Mitchell Marner Over 1.5 shots on goal (-380) ???
Combined odds: +898
Not intended for use in MA
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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks
These two legs of the parlay go hand-in-hand. Both cash if Toronto notches a two-goal win.
The Maple Leafs couldn't have played worse on Tuesday, and I'm anticipa ting improvement across the board. But they still won't run away from the Lightning.
Toronto was slightly better than Tampa Bay in five-on-five Corsi For percentage and expected goals for percentage when adjusted for score and venue in Game 1, and the non-adjusted numbers weren't even close.
The Lightning aren't going to spend 10:17 with the man advantage again in Game 2, and I'm expecting their depth to be tested more at five-on-five. That's especially true with blueliners Erik Cernak (upper body) already ruled out, and Victor Hedman (undisclosed) a game-time decision.
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The Maple Leafs winger logged a team-high 23:06 of ice time during Game 1, and he registered three shots on five attempts. Marner has now recorded 24 shots over his past eight postseason game s against the Lightning.
He's also tallied at least two shots in 54 of 80 regular-season games.
Still, the main reason I added this leg to the parlay is that it boosts the odds from +621 to +898, and I'm expecting Marner to play huge minutes again Thursday.
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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game info
- Date: Thusday, April 20, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, On
Lightning-Maple Leafs pick made 4/20/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
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