The price differences in MLB odds for home run props continue to be one of the largest of any betting market across our best sportsbooks. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Thursday.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Thursday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB home run props
- Pete Alonso Over 0.5 home runs (+425 via BetMGM) ??
Not intended for use in MA
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Thursday's MLB home run prop picks
No one has hit more homers since Alonso entered the league in 2019, and he faces a vulnerable southpaw Thursday. San Francisco Giants starter Sean Manaea has surrendered 1.9 HR/9 to right-handed hitters since last season.
Alonso has crushed southpaws with a career .300 ISO, 26.4 HR/FB rate, and 35.6 hard-hit percentage, and we're also receiving a nice bonus with the wind forecasted to be blowing out at Oracle Park on Thursday.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +425 | +420 | +425 | +305 ?? | +400 |
I'm surprised there are +425 odds available for Alonso to leave the yard Thursday, and that number presents a huge edge over the price through Caesars. It checks out as a positive expected value of 30%, or an extra $9.75 in profit on a $10 dollar wager.
Additionally, I'd recommend complementing the home run bet with Alsonso's total bases prop. The best odds for the slugger to go Over 1.5 total bases are +120 through DraftKings and BetMGM.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/20/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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