The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 9-10 ATS.
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+7.85 Units / 157% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+7.25 Units / 121% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.75 Units / 84% ROI)
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Connor Wong | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Rafael Devers | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Connor Wong | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Rafael Devers | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
Byron Buxton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Connor Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Rafael Devers | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Byron Buxton | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tanner Houck | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Kenta Maeda | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 22.3% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 19.51% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -25.06% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 16.96% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 9-10 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -6.65% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -11.9% ROI
- 13-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 31.08% ROI
- 6-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -40.8% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (2/22) against Kenta Maeda on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 14th, 2021 — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 6.
Kenta Maeda has not walked any of the 44 batters that he has faced this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (36/91) against Kenta Maeda this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has a strike rate of just 59% (289/492) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
9 of Tanner Houck’s 36 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (159/303) since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.